532
FXUS62 KKEY 281801
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
201 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR- NIL RAIN CHANCES. NEAR-SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT NEAR 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, BROAD
SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO REBUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL LIMIT SHOWER
COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A RETURN TO NEAR- NORMAL RAIN
AND THUNDER CHANCES IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
THE MOISTURE PROFILE SAMPLED IN THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING AT KEY
IS A FANTASTIC DISPLAY OF A SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL), WITH
TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 800-500 MB. COUPLED WITH A
UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-3 KM LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND ONLY GENTLE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW, IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT KBYX IS VOID OF ANY
METEOROLOGICAL ECHO RETURNS. TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY RISING, WELL
INTO THE UPPER 80S, WITH FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
100S. FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY, A ROUTINE FORECAST, WITH SAL
DOMINATING THE MAINLY DRY AND WARM FORECAST. NO CHANGES PROPOSED
TO THE INHERITED 10% CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER (WHICH MAY BE A
BIT GENEROUS).
FORECAST
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
THE BIG WEATHER STORY TODAY FOR THE KEYS IS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
(SAL) CURRENTLY ADVECTING INTO OUR AREA. WITH THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM LAST WEEK LOSING ITS INFLUENCE TO RIDGING
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA, THE SAL RIDING ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE FINALLY MAKES ITS PASS ACROSS
THE KEYS THIS WEEKEND. WHILE OUR 00Z BALLOON SOUNDING FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING WAS TOO EARLY TO CAPTURE THE DRY AIR FILTERING
IN ALOFT, CIMSS MIMIC TPW SHOWS DRIER VALUES PRESENT OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS THIS MORNING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A LACK OF
PRECIPITATION IN OUR CWA. WHILE THIS FORECAST IS ABOUT AS DRY AS
IT CAN GET FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WET SEASON LIKES TO BE SOMEWHAT
UNRULY WHEN IT COMES TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE OPTED TO
GO WITH DIME POPS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO TO COVER POSSIBLE ISOLATED INCIDENTS OF SHOWERS
POPPING UP BRIEFLY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AS THE SAL PUSHES
WEST PAST THE KEYS. POPS WILL FURTHER INCREASE AT THE START OF THE
WEEK AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CYCLES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
KEYS. GUIDANCE LOOKS TO PLACE THIS FEATURE ON OUR DOORSTEP
SOMETIME MONDAY ALONG WITH BOTH A SURFACE REFLECTION AND A FRESH
UNDULATION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. OF COURSE, THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC PLAYERS HERE
ALONG WITH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION, SO POPS HAVE BEEN
MERELY NUDGED UP FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO NOTE THE PERIOD
MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN ACCORDING TO RECENT MODEL RUNS. THIS
TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED AS WE APPROACH THE START OF THE
WEEK. AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND POPS ARE CURRENTLY ON TAP.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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