578
FXUS62 KKEY 290851
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
451 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ENFORCED BY A SAHARAN AIR LAYER
(SAL) ALOFT CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING HOURS FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS. THE DETERIORATING CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OUT IN THE EASTERN
STRAITS OF FLORIDA THAT CREATED SOME CONVECTION A FEW HOURS
EARLIER IS STILL BARELY VISIBLE ON KBYX RADAR BUT MOST SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAVE DISSIPATED. ELSEWHERE, NO PRECIPITABLE
ECHOES ARE DETECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. GOES-19 NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY NOTES A LARGE MASS OF HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS
CLOUDS CAUGHT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED IN THE GULF AND
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. THESE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MAKE UP THE MAJORITY OF OUR SKY COVER THROUGHOUT OUR CWA
ALONG WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. WINDS HAVE CERTAINLY
RECOVERED FROM THEIR USUAL LATE AFTERNOON LULL AS MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES ARE OBSERVED ALONG
THE REEF. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE ONCE AGAIN IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S.
CONSIDERING THE SAL IS POISED TO KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE, THE
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THE WIND FORECAST. THE
ONGOING NOCTURNAL SURGE BROUGHT UPON BY THE SURFACE HIGH
RECOVERING FROM DAYTIME HEATING IS PROMOTING WIND SPEEDS A FEW
KNOTS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. THIS MAY BE DUE TO SOME EXTRA POWER
ADDED BY SOME OF THE OUTFLOW FROM LONG DISSIPATED CONVECTION.
EITHER WAY, THIS UPTICK IN WINDS THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
FOLLOWING SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES WARM ONCE AGAIN. YESTERDAY
EVENING'S 00Z BALLOON SOUNDING NOTED VERY DRY AIR IMMEDIATELY
ABOVE 900 MB WITH AN OVERALL PW VALUE OF 1.49 INCHES. CIMSS MIMIC
TPW PRODUCT SHOWS THE ISLAND CHAIN CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE OF A
PATCH OF SUB 1.5 INCH VALUES WITH A GOOD AMOUNT STILL UPSTREAM
OVER AND SOUTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THUS HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR ANOTHER FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL. SEEING THAT THERE WERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES YESTERDAY
EVENING, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IS ALSO IN PLACE TODAY.
A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) WILL BE UPON US BY THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY IDENTIFIABLE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ITS CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE BAHAMAS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TUTT WILL MARCH
CLOSER TO THE KEYS BEFORE PARKING ITSELF ALONG FLORIDA'S EAST
COAST SOMETIME DURING MONDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UNDULATION OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF A WESTWARD ADVECTING
SAL LAYER. THE RESULTING COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ENHANCE POPS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A SURFACE LOW REFLECTION DRAGGING ALONG THE TUTT WILL ARRIVE A
TOUCH LATER HELPING TO SLACKEN WINDS LEADING INTO TUESDAY. THE
TUTT WILL START GETTING STRETCHED NORTH BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY ALLOWING RIDGING
TO START BUILDING BACK IN ALOFT. THIS FINAL PATTERN SHIFT OF THE
WEEK WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS BACK TO THE KEYS UNTIL AT
LEAST THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS, THOUGH SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS DECREASE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
FROM SYNOPSIS, BROAD SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO REBUILD OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER
WILL LIMIT SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A RETURN TO
NEAR- NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE NEXT 06Z TAF PERIOD.
EASTERLY WINDS REMAIN NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS. A PULSE
OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 88 81 89 81 / 20 20 30 40
MARATHON 89 81 90 81 / 20 30 40 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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