518
FXUS62 KKEY 300751
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
351 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
QUITE THE CHAOTIC WEATHER PATTERN WE SEEM TO BE CRAMMED BETWEEN
THIS MORNING. TO OUR EAST WE HAVE A LARGE TUTT CELL MOVING ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS. THIS IS LEADING TO POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FOR THE MOST PART HAVE STAYED OUT OF AREA.
MEANWHILE, TO OUR NORTH WE HAVE A WEAK TROUGH STALLED ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. THIS IS KEEPING MOISTURE PINNED UP ALONG
THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. CLOSER TO HOME, AS ALLUDED TO, WE ARE
RAIN FREE WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LEVELS STREAMING SOUTH FROM
CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLAND. WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE 90 DEGREES
OFFSET, COMING IN THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
FORECAST
THE TWO FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE QUITE THE HEADACHE FOR
OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DESPITE A HEALTHY AND
LARGE TUTT, THERE IS NOT REALLY A SURFACE REFLECTION TO SPEAK OF.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS LIKELY
CONTRIBUTING TO A LACK OF RAINFALL. IN ADDITION, WE WILL BE GOING
SOUTHERLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DAY, WHICH TENDS TO
HAVE A DRYING EFFECT. THAT BEING SAID, IF BOUNDARIES WERE TO
COLLIDE WITH ENOUGH FORCE, THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WOULD AID IN AT
LEAST SUSTAINING BRIEF OUTBURSTS OF CONVECTION. AS A RESULT,
DROPPED RAIN CHANCES AS COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AND NOT ALL
ISLAND COMMUNITIES WILL BE AFFECTED TODAY. TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL STEERING FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY, WE COULD SEE RESIDUAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME OFF CUBA AND MOVE NORTHWARD OVER
THE ISLAND CHAIN.
MEANWHILE, THE TUTT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWEST, THEN NORTH ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS IT PULLS
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE KEYS, IT WILL PULL THE MOISTURE WITH IT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECLINE IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID-
WEEK. HOWEVER, THIS IS WHERE THE HEADACHE CONTINUES. IF YOU RECALL
THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK TROUGH, THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AND PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS IT DOES, MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN SURGE
IN ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME, RIDGING ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC, WILL FORCE THIS LOW TO RETROGRADE AND BRIEFLY SLIDE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THEN IT WILL
SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE
FEATURE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS MORE LIKELY THIS
WEEKEND. HAVE BEGUN THE UPWARD TREND IN POPS FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT MAY COME ABOUT
THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE IF AT ALL. REGARDLESS OF FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT, THIS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WELL TO OUR NORTH. FOR
NOW, IMPACTS TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
BROAD LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO REBUILD OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS, VEERING
TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND MODESTLY SLACKENING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. AN UPPER- LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL SLIDE SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA EAST COAST EARLY THIS WEEK,
SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES. RAIN
CHANCES BRIEFLY TAPER BACK MID-WEEK BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATE
THIS WEEK DUE TO A NEW WEATHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST US.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TODAY. WHILE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TODAY, HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
EITHER TAF FOR NOW. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE
EAST AT NEAR 10 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
IN 2010, KEY WEST EXPERIENCED ITS WARMEST JUNE EVER WITH AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 85.9F. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST IN JUNE DATE
BACK TO 1873.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 88 81 89 81 / 20 30 20 20
MARATHON 90 82 91 82 / 20 30 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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