000  
FXUS62 KKEY 301541  
AFDKEY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL  
1141 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025  
SATELLITE-DERIVED PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO DETECT THE BEGINNING OF THE  
END FOR THE LATEST SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) EVENT. THE VAST  
MAJORITY OF THE DETECTED AEROSOLS HAVE ADVECTED WEST OF THE ISLAND  
CHAIN, WITH THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING AT KEY ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF  
THIS EVOLUTION. CIMSS MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY PRODUCTS  
HIGHLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL  
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL NOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE  
BAHAMAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SLIDE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA  
SPACE COAST. MEANWHILE, A SECOND AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED  
WITH A WEAK TROUGHING FEATURE IS LOCATED NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION  
OF FLORIDA. THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THEE TWO  
FEATURES. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WEAK  
BOUNDARY SLID THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND  
CHAIN AROUND SUNRISE, REACHED PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER  
KEYS, THEN EVENTUALLY DISSIPATED BEFORE BEING ABLE TO AFFECT MOST  
OF THE LOWER KEYS. KBYX RADAR IS CURRENTLY DETECTING VERY LITTLE  
IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS DELIVERING MEASURABLE RAINFALL NOW AT THIS  
LATE MORNING HOUR.  
 
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, WHILE THERE IS LIKELY SOME SUBSIDENCE  
ACROSS THE KEYS CWA (OWED TO BEING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THESE  
CYCLONIC FEATURES), SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS,  
ALONG WITH A LARGELY UNINHIBITED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT  
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT,  
INCLUDING ANY ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA POSSIBLY  
NUDGING SOUTHWESTWARD. MID-LEVEL CHANCE RAIN AND SLIGHT THUNDER  
CHANCES STILL SEEMS APPROPRIATE. OUTSIDE OF THE EARLIER INCREASES  
TO POPS FOR THE FIRST PERIOD DUE TO EARLY MORNING RADAR TRENDS, NO  
CHANGES PROPOSED TO THE INHERITED ONCE-PER-DAY OVERNIGHT FULL  
FORECAST PACKAGE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025  
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR  
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, BROAD LOW-  
LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO REBUILD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND  
SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS  
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS, VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND  
MODESTLY SLACKENING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. AN UPPER- LEVEL LOW EAST  
OF THE BAHAMAS WILL SLIDE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE  
FLORIDA EAST COAST EARLY THIS WEEK, SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED  
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES BRIEFLY TAPER BACK MID-WEEK  
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK DUE TO A NEW WEATHER  
DISTURBANCE SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST US.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(15Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH THE  
TAF PERIOD, WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 8 TO 10 KNOTS.  
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND  
EVOLUTION BARS FROM INCLUSION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
KEY WEST 88 81 89 81 / 40 30 20 20  
MARATHON 90 82 91 82 / 40 30 20 20  
 

 
   
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT  
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT  
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT  
 
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY  
 
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST  
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab FL Page Main Text Page