976
FXUS62 KKEY 010247
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1047 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1046 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING REVEALS A COMPLEX
UPPER-AIR PATTERN, WITH DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONES POSITIONED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST AND WEST OF THE SERVICE AREA, A
TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS, AND AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OF MIDLATITUDE
ORIGIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. DATA FROM THE KEY WEST EVENING
RADIOSONDE BALLOON INDICATED A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, WITH
LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY POCKETS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER, RECENT SATELLITE
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE A RICHER MOISTURE PLUME MIGRATING TOWARD
THE SERVICE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. RADAR TRENDS HAVE
TRANSITIONED FROM CONVECTION FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER NEARBY LARGER
LAND MASSES THIS AFTERNOON TO INCREASING ACTIVITY OVER OUR MOSTLY
MARITIME SERVICE AREA THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND CELL INTENSITY ARE OCCURRING OVER GMZ074 AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PLUME APPROACHES AN ENVIRONMENT RICH IN
POTENTIAL BUOYANCY AND TRENDING MORE FAVORABLE WITH REGARD TO
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AND
EXPERIMENTAL CARIBBEAN VERSIONS OF THE HRRR MODEL INDICATE
RAINFALL COVERAGE INCREASING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, PEAKING
AROUND 0100-0300 EDT, THEN TAPERING OFF TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE
FORECAST PACKAGE FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE INDICATES WELL-ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT, WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE, WE WILL MAINTAIN STATUS QUO FOR THE
OVERNIGHT UPDATES.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL DISRUPTION OF WINDS DUE TO NEARBY
SHOWERS AND STORMS, WE DID INSERT THE PHRASE "WINDS AND SEAS
HIGHER IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS" WITHIN THE EVENING
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST UPDATE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1046 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS ZONES. BROAD LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
REBUILD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS,
VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND MODESTLY SLACKENING
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST EARLY THIS WEEK, SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RAIN AND
THUNDER CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BRIEFLY TAPER BACK MID-WEEK
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK DUE TO A NEW WEATHER
DISTURBANCE SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
THROUGH 01/24Z, PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. HOWEVER, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXTREME
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCASIONALLY BE PRESENT WITHIN 25-50 NAUTICAL
MILES OF EYW AND MTH, WITH MOVEMENT FROM 100/10KT AT 01/06Z,
TRANSITIONING TO 140/09KT AT 01/12Z, AND 180/09KT AT 01/24Z.
PROBABILITIES OF SUB-VFR IMPACTS REMAIN TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN
TAFS. HOWEVER, WE WILL AMEND APPROPRIATELY BASED ON SHORT-TERM
RADAR TRENDS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....KASPER
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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