428
FXUS62 KKEY 010905
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
505 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
IT HAS CERTAINLY BEEN A TUMULTUOUS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS. A SLEW OF BOUNDARIES FROM ALL DIRECTION CONVERGED
AND COLLIDED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS. BUT EVEN WITH ALL THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS OCCURRED AND
REMAINS ONGOING, THE MIDDLE KEYS HAVE MISSED OUT ON MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER KEYS PICKED UP 1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH THE
LOWER KEYS PICKING UP A HALF TO ONE INCH THUS FAR. THE MIDDLE KEYS
HAVE SEEN AT MOST AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE REMAINS A
HEALTHY CLUSTER STILL ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BUT WE ARE
OBSERVING A NOTICEABLE DOWNWARD TREND ON RADAR. WHERE IT HAS
RAINED, TEMPERATURES TOOK A TUMBLE DOWN INTO THE MID 70S, A NICE
REPRIEVE FROM THE MILDER LOWER 80S.
GOING FORWARD TODAY, MOST OF OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
THIS MORNING. AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON, A TUTT CELL LOCATED OFF
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE A NORTHWARD TREK. AS THIS
FEATURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE KEYS, THE LOW LEVEL STEERING
FLOW WILL GO MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY DRIER
AIR PIVOTING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC RIDGE,
WILL PROVIDE LOWER RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE, LURKING ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD IS A QUASI-
STALLED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THESE FEATURES WILL VERY SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN
THE SLOW PROGRESSION, IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS TO
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. AS OF RIGHT NOW,
BETTER RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY, PEAKING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER, A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD WILL
MOVE INTO THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN INTO POTENTIALLY
A CLOSED-OFF LOW. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY. THAT BEING SAID, THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHAT THIS INTERACTION WILL ULTIMATELY PRODUCE. GFS HAS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA COAST, WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE SAME REGION. REGARDLESS, THIS
POSES NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO THE KEYS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
BROAD LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO REBUILD OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS, VEERING
TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND MODESTLY SLACKENING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA EAST COAST EARLY
THIS WEEK, SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BRIEFLY TAPER BACK MID-WEEK BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK DUE TO A NEW WEATHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TODAY. OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN HAVE DISSIPATED, WITH THE
ATMOSPHERE NEEDING TO RECHARGE BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLY
DEVELOPS. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHER THAN NORMAL, UNCERTAINTY IN
LOCATION AND TIMING OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
EITHER TAF FOR NOW. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE
EAST AT NEAR 10 KNOTS, GRADUALLY SLACKENING LATER TODAY.
OF NOTE
ON THIS DAY IN 1957, THE KEY WEST WEATHER BUREAU MOVED TO THE
AIRPORT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 82 90 81 / 60 30 20 10
MARATHON 88 82 88 82 / 50 30 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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