431
FXUS62 KKEY 011557
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1157 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
CIMSS SATELLITE-DERIVED VORTICITY ANALYSIS PLACES AN EXPANSIVE
CYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL GYRE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GULF
EASTWARD TO WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS FORCING FOR UPPER-
LEVEL VENTILATION, COMBINED WITH A MOISTURE SURGE IN THE WAKE OF A
WAVE OF SAHARAN DUST, AS WELL AS COPIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THE MAINLAND AND CUBA SUPPORTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LAST NIGHT'S OVERNIGHT PERIOD THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE. CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY (CAPE) HAS SINCE
BEEN EXHAUSTED, WITH RECENT GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS
HIGHLIGHTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE KEYS AND THE ADJACENT
NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY
RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S AT THIS LATE MORNING HOUR.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, COUPLED WITH THE NEED FOR RECHARGING OF CAPE,
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW- LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME
TEMPORARY MOISTURE PROFILE DRYING, WITH LOW RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES EXPECTED. THEREAFTER, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
STILL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE MAINLAND TO INTERACT WITH ANY
DEVELOPING STORMS OVER CUBA TO SEE IF/WHEN ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT
OCCURS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. OVERALL, THIS FORECAST REASONING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
INHERITED ONCE-PER-DAY FULL FORECAST PACKAGE CRAFTED OVERNIGHT. NO
CHANGES PROPOSED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS ZONES. FROM SYNOPSIS, BROAD LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO REBUILD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND SUPPORT GENTLE TO
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS, VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND MODESTLY
SLACKENING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST EARLY THIS WEEK, SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BRIEFLY TAPER BACK
MID-WEEK BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK DUE TO A NEW
WEATHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. AFTER A LULL IN ANY SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND EVOLUTION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED FOR THE
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 82 90 81 / 60 30 20 10
MARATHON 88 82 88 82 / 50 30 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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