891
FXUS62 KKEY 020257
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1057 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1018 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN, CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRETTY QUIET THIS
EVENING. THE SAME CANNOT BE SAID FOR OUR MARINE ZONES. OUR KBYX
RADAR HAS SPENT THIS SHIFT DETECTING WAXING AND WANING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR MARINE ZONES. IT IS
ALMOST SURPRISING THAT THIS ACTIVITY HASN'T CROSSED ANY OF THE
ISLAND COMMUNITIES. THE ABUNDANCE OF ACTIVITY ITSELF ISN'T VERY
SURPRISING THOUGH. OUR 00Z KKEY SOUNDING DOESN'T SHOW MUCH IN
TERMS OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION, A VEERING WIND PROFILE, AND AN
IMPRESSIVE PWAT VALUE OF 1.93". IN FACT, CIMSS MIMIC PWAT SHOWS
VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL POCKET OF
LOWER PWAT VALUES IN THE AREA OF THE DISTANT FLORIDA STRAITS, BUT
THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO CONVECTION THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER
THAT AREA. CIMSS VORTICITY ANALYSIS SHOWS THE TUTT CIRCULATION IS
STILL IN PLACE ALOFT, JUST TO OUR EAST, AND THIS IS AN IMPORTANT
PLAYER IN THE CONTINUED CONVECTION.
WITH THIS SET UP IN PLACE, WE ARE NOT MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST ADVERTISING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES OR UPDATES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1018 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, BROAD LOW-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO REBUILD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND SUPPORT
GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES
ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS, VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AND MODESTLY SLACKENING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL SUPPORT BOUTS OF SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BRIEFLY TAPER BACK MID-WEEK, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATE
THIS WEEK DUE TO A NEW WEATHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
LOWERED CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CLOSE
TO SUNRISE. A RETURNING SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL HELP TO LIMIT
ACTIVITY, BUT RESIDUAL CLOUD DEBRIS COULD RESULT IN INFREQUENT AND
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS DURING THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 82 90 81 91 / 30 20 10 10
MARATHON 82 88 82 89 / 30 20 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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