808
FXUS62 KKEY 020714
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
314 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
IT HAS BEEN A MIXED BAG OF ACTIVITY FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARIES
ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION OVER CUBA DID RACE NORTHWARD AS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE ACTIVITY THAT SPARKED ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES WERE A LITTLE UNDERWHELMING. AS OF 3 AM, MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD OUT OF OUR CWA WITH A LINGER BATCH
APPROACHING THE UPPER KEYS. A BROAD TUTT SITS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COASTLINE AND CONTINUES TO CHURN OUT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS. MEANWHILE, A LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS SLOWLY RETURNING TO
OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST THANKS IN PART DUE TO THE TUTT MOVING
FURTHER NORTH. THIS IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN OUR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. SINCE RAIN HAS SPARSELY AFFECTED THE KEYS
THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES ARE STARKLY WARMER THIS TIME THAN
YESTERDAY.
FORECAST
DRIER AIR, THANKS TO THE NEXT ITERATION OF SAL IS BEGINNING TO
MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUTOFF MOST OF OUR
PRECIPITATION. THAT BEING SAID, WE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF
ACTIVITY JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE TODAY AS THE LEADING EDGE PASSES
THROUGH. OTHERWISE, EXPECTING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE ISLAND CHAIN GOING INTO MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER KEYS. IN ADDITION TO THE SAL, WE WILL ONCE
AGAIN HAVE A SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME, WHICH
ACTS TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS.
THE SAL AND ITS EFFECTS ON RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER, EYES TURN TO A QUASI- STALLED TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. THIS FEATURE WILL VERY SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
FRIDAY. ACCOMPANYING THIS TROUGH WILL BE A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS.
AT THE SAME TIME, A SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES TO MOVE BACK IN STARTING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT BUT
MORE LIKELY STARTING FRIDAY.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PUSH. HOWEVER, THERE'S HIGH CERTAINTY
THAT THE BEST LIFT AND SUPPORT WILL BE TO OUR NORTH. WHILE WE WILL
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAR LESS THAN WHAT
SOUTH FLORIDA MAY POTENTIALLY SEE. UNFORTUNATELY THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN NEARBY FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND AS SUCH WE CAN
EXPECT FAIRLY WET CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
BROAD LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO REBUILD OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND SUPPORT GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS,
VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND MODESTLY SLACKENING
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BRIEFLY TAPER BACK MID-
WEEK, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK DUE TO A NEW WEATHER
DISTURBANCE SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TODAY. WHILE A FEW
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW AND TIMING
WILL BE TOO UNCERTAIN TO MENTION IN EITHER TAF. NEAR SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT NEAR 10 KNOTS, GRADUALLY
SLACKENING LATER TODAY.
OF NOTE
IN 1878, A TROPICAL STORM PASSED ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF KEY WEST,
WHERE A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 29.77" WAS RECORDED ALONG WITH A PEAK
SUSTAINED WIND OF 36 MPH.
TROPICAL
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
ATLANTIC OR GULF COASTS BY THIS WEEKEND ALONG A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT, BUT A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM IN THIS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S., PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 82 91 81 / 30 10 10 30
MARATHON 88 82 88 81 / 30 10 10 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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