158
FXUS62 KKEY 021451
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1051 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1048 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS
TWO PORTIONS OF OUR MARINE DISTRICT, MAINLY OVER THE GULF WATERS
BEYOND 20 NM NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS AND THE EASTERN STRAITS AND
FLORIDA BAY. WE ARE SEEING EROSION OF THESE ECHOES WITH THE MORE
ROBUST CELLS LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR WATERS. THE MORNING SOUNDING CAPTURED THE SOON-TO-BE-DEPARTING
LOWER-TO-MID LEVEL MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER JUST SHY OF 2.2 INCHES AND LITTLE INHIBITION, A RELATIVELY
THIN LAYER UP THROUGH 850 MB OR SO OF LIGHT SOUTHERLIES WITH WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE. AS THIS PROFILE REPRESENTS THE AIRMASS
STILL ADVECTING NORTHWARD, WHEREAS THE NEAREST AVAILABLE SOUNDING
AT GRAND CAYMAN INDICATES A HEALTHY SAHARAN AIR/ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER THAT PER VISIBLE AND SANDWICH IMAGERY IS LURKING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN STRAITS. WE SEE NO REASON FOR THIS LAYER TO
ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RIDING OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WITH SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 TO 36 HOURS. GIVEN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
TENDS TO BE MOSTLY ALOFT, THE CURRENT UPPER 70S DEW POINTS MAY NOT
MODIFY DOWNWARD VERY MUCH, IF AT ALL, GIVEN THE PERSISTING LIGHT
TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1048 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS ZONES. SOUTH WINDS WERE BROAD LOW-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO REBUILD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND
SUPPORT GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS, VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND MODESTLY SLACKENING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BRIEFLY TAPER BACK MID- WEEK, BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK DUE TO A NEW WEATHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TODAY. WIDELY
SEPARATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED FURTHER
AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TERMINALS THIS
MORNING, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A VICINITY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
INTERNATIONAL TERMINALS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THIS
MORNING WERE INDICATING WIDESPREAD AREAS OF 5-6SM, MOSTLY LIKELY
FROM HAZE. SOME OF THIS LIGHT HAZE MAY MOVE IN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 11 KNOTS
EXPECTED TO SLACKEN TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS TONIGHT.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JR
DATA ACQUISITION.....JR
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