255
FXUS62 KKEY 021755
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
155 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THURSDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS OSCILLATION FROM 170-200 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON BACK TO 150-170 DEGREES LATE THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES
APPEAR LIMITED NEAR THE TERMINALS TONIGHT, HOWEVER SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER
GULF WATERS NORTH OF KEY WEST TONIGHT, BUT AT THIS TIME MAY REMAIN
NORTH OF THE TERMINAL VICINITYS. SUBSTANTIAL LIGHT HAZE WAS NOTED
AT CARIBBEAN ISLAND TERMINALS WELL TO OUR SOUTH, AND IT'S STILL A
POSSIBLITY THAT VISIBILITY COULD DIP BELOW 7SM TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1048 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS ZONES. SOUTH WINDS WERE BROAD LOW-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO REBUILD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND
SUPPORT GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS, VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND MODESTLY SLACKENING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BRIEFLY TAPER BACK MID- WEEK, BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK DUE TO A NEW WEATHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1048 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS
TWO PORTIONS OF OUR MARINE DISTRICT, MAINLY OVER THE GULF WATERS
BEYOND 20 NM NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS AND THE EASTERN STRAITS AND
FLORIDA BAY. WE ARE SEEING EROSION OF THESE ECHOES WITH THE MORE
ROBUST CELLS LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR WATERS. THE MORNING SOUNDING CAPTURED THE SOON-TO-BE-DEPARTING
LOWER-TO-MID LEVEL MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER JUST SHY OF 2.2 INCHES AND LITTLE INHIBITION, A RELATIVELY
THIN LAYER UP THROUGH 850 MB OR SO OF LIGHT SOUTHERLIES WITH WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE. AS THIS PROFILE REPRESENTS THE AIRMASS
STILL ADVECTING NORTHWARD, WHEREAS THE NEAREST AVAILABLE SOUNDING
AT GRAND CAYMAN INDICATES A HEALTHY SAHARAN AIR/ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER THAT PER VISIBLE AND SANDWICH IMAGERY IS LURKING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN STRAITS. WE SEE NO REASON FOR THIS LAYER TO
ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RIDING OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WITH SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 TO 36 HOURS. GIVEN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
TENDS TO BE MOSTLY ALOFT, THE CURRENT UPPER 70S DEW POINTS MAY NOT
MODIFY DOWNWARD VERY MUCH, IF AT ALL, GIVEN THE PERSISTING LIGHT
TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY WINDS.
FORECAST
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
DRIER AIR, THANKS TO THE NEXT ITERATION OF SAL IS BEGINNING TO
MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUTOFF MOST OF OUR
PRECIPITATION. THAT BEING SAID, WE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF
ACTIVITY JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE TODAY AS THE LEADING EDGE PASSES
THROUGH. OTHERWISE, EXPECTING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE ISLAND CHAIN GOING INTO MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER KEYS. IN ADDITION TO THE SAL, WE WILL ONCE
AGAIN HAVE A SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME, WHICH
ACTS TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS.
THE SAL AND ITS EFFECTS ON RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER, EYES TURN TO A QUASI- STALLED TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. THIS FEATURE WILL VERY SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
FRIDAY. ACCOMPANYING THIS TROUGH WILL BE A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS.
AT THE SAME TIME, A SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES TO MOVE BACK IN STARTING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT BUT
MORE LIKELY STARTING FRIDAY.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PUSH. HOWEVER, THERE'S HIGH CERTAINTY
THAT THE BEST LIFT AND SUPPORT WILL BE TO OUR NORTH. WHILE WE WILL
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAR LESS THAN WHAT
SOUTH FLORIDA MAY POTENTIALLY SEE. UNFORTUNATELY THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN NEARBY FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND AS SUCH WE CAN
EXPECT FAIRLY WET CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 82 91 81 90 / 20 10 30 40
MARATHON 82 88 81 88 / 20 10 20 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JR
DATA ACQUISITION.....JR
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