761
FXUS62 KKEY 030707
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
307 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
A TUTT CELL NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS IS DISSIPATING AND BEING ABSORBED
INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S AND ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, NOW LIES TO OUR NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A FRACTURED HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC AND INTO THE GULF BASIN. THIS HAS LEFT THE KEYS IN A
COL REGION WITH AN AXIS OF DILATATION ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS. TO
THE EAST OF THIS AXIS, SURFACE WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH, WHILE TO THE WEST THEY ARE WEST TO NORTHWEST. ALONG THIS
AXIS SOME WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE TREKKING NORTHEAST.
WHILE LAST EVENINGS SOUNDING SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE, WE
LACK ANY LARGE SCALE ROBUST LIFT AND AS SUCH, THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS MEAGER THIS MORNING.
THE FLORIDA KEYS LIE RIGHT ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE RESIDUAL
SAL AND THE INCOMING MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
WITH THAT SAID, THE MAJORITY OF THE KEYS WILL STAY ON THE SAL SIDE
OF THINGS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED. ACROSS THE DEEP
GULF WATERS, WHERE MOISTURE HAS BEEN POOLING, IS WHERE MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR. THIS SLOWLY CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAKES ITS CLOSET APPROACH TO THE ISLAND
CHAIN. THAT BEING SAID, THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL STAY TO
OUR NORTH. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
LOW END CHANCE (30 PERCENT) TONIGHT, AND FURTHER INCREASING TO
HIGH- END CHANCE (50 PERCENT) FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH ACROSS THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY GET PICKED UP BY THE MAIN
FLOW AND LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE. AS IT DOES,
THE MOISTURE WILL BE GRADUALLY PULLED WITH IT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS, THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL NOSE
BACK IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF EASTERLIES
AS WELL AS THE OCCASIONAL MOISTURE SURGE. THEREFORE, RAIN CHANCES
WILL HOVER GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
BROAD LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO REBUILD OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS AND
GRADUALLY CLOCK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AS TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE BY FRIDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS
A RESULT. AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION AND LIFTS NORTHEAST STARTING
SUNDAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS,
RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, THOUGH BRIEF TRANSIENT EPISODES OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AS SKY COVERAGE WAXES AND WANES. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, BUT
CHANCES REMAIN LOW AND COVERAGE AND TIMING UNCERTAIN, SO REFRAINING
FROM INCLUSION IN THE TAF FOR THE MOMENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BUT COULD BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR FLORIDA OR THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT, BUT A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN
THIS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM
DRIFTS NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, THERE ARE NO MAJOR CONCERNS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AT
THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2023, THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96F WAS
RECORDED AT KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 90 81 90 81 / 20 30 50 50
MARATHON 88 80 88 80 / 20 20 50 50
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MC
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
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