563  
FXUS62 KKEY 041021  
AFDKEY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL  
621 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
EVEN THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT STARTED OUT ON THE QUIETER SIDE,  
IT WAS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE THINGS STARTED PICKING UP.  
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO  
OUR DEEP GULF WATERS, AND WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS. AT FIRST  
GLANCE, STORM MOTION LOOKS A LITTLE SLOPPY, BUT THERE DOES SEEM TO  
BE A HINT OF A UNIFORM NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW LINES UP  
WITH THE TROUGHING PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN SETTING UP IN THE  
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CIMSS 700-850MB STEERING LAYER ANALYSIS STILL  
SHOWS SOME EVIDENCE OF THE COL AREA, BUT THE 300-850MB CONFIRMS  
THE TROUGHING ACROSS MOST OF THE SUNSHINE STATE. ALL OF THIS IS TO  
SAY THAT THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY MEANINGFUL SOURCE OF LIFT DURING  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT THIS WILL CHANGE THIS MORNING AS THE  
PATTERN IS CONTINUING TO EVOLVE. SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS HAVEN'T  
SHOWN LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THE NEARBY SHOWERS, BUT  
SOME POCKETS OF LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN OBSERVED JUST TO OUR NORTH AND  
NORTHEAST. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING TO FURTHER OUR INSTABILITY,  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME A CONCERN TODAY.  
 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT  
LEAST THROUGH TOMORROW, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE OUR  
HIGHEST POPS (50%) UNTIL THEN. THIS ISN'T TO SAY THAT THE HOLIDAY  
WILL BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT, BUT ANYONE WITH PLANS OUTSIDE DURING  
THE DAY WILL WANT TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE. IF YOU CAN HEAR  
THUNDER, YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK.  
 
BY SUNDAY, THE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND  
AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THIS WILL GIVE SOME RIDGING THE OPPORTUNITY TO  
BUILD IN, AND WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LOOK MORE SEASONABLE. IT IS  
JUST DIFFICULT TO OFFER MUCH INSIGHT AS TO WHAT THE PATTERN WILL  
LOOK LIKE, SINCE THIS WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE  
WEAK LOW/TROUGHING PATTERN WE HAVE TO GET THROUGH FIRST.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE  
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, TROUGHING WILL  
GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO FLORIDA TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH THE FLORIDA  
KEYS LOCAL WATERS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS PATTERN. THIS WILL LEAD  
TO SUSTAINED GENTLE TO MODESTLY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES,  
AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE TROUGH EXITS  
THE REGION AND LIFTS NORTHEAST STARTING SUNDAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS  
WILL LIE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS, RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT TO  
GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE  
TAF PERIOD, THOUGH BRIEF TRANSIENT EPISODES OF MVFR CIGS ARE  
POSSIBLE AS SKY COVERAGE WAXES AND WANES. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, BUT COVERAGE AND  
TIMING ARE UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE INCLUSION IN THE TAF FOR  
THE MOMENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST  
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BUT COULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
JULY 4, ON THIS DAY IN 1947, THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 6.07" WAS  
RECORDED AT KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO  
1871.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
KEY WEST 90 81 90 82 / 50 50 50 30  
MARATHON 88 81 88 81 / 50 50 50 30  
 

 
   
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP  
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MC  
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC  
 
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