563
FXUS62 KKEY 041021
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
621 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
EVEN THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT STARTED OUT ON THE QUIETER SIDE,
IT WAS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE THINGS STARTED PICKING UP.
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO
OUR DEEP GULF WATERS, AND WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS. AT FIRST
GLANCE, STORM MOTION LOOKS A LITTLE SLOPPY, BUT THERE DOES SEEM TO
BE A HINT OF A UNIFORM NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW LINES UP
WITH THE TROUGHING PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN SETTING UP IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CIMSS 700-850MB STEERING LAYER ANALYSIS STILL
SHOWS SOME EVIDENCE OF THE COL AREA, BUT THE 300-850MB CONFIRMS
THE TROUGHING ACROSS MOST OF THE SUNSHINE STATE. ALL OF THIS IS TO
SAY THAT THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY MEANINGFUL SOURCE OF LIFT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT THIS WILL CHANGE THIS MORNING AS THE
PATTERN IS CONTINUING TO EVOLVE. SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS HAVEN'T
SHOWN LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THE NEARBY SHOWERS, BUT
SOME POCKETS OF LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN OBSERVED JUST TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING TO FURTHER OUR INSTABILITY,
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME A CONCERN TODAY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT
LEAST THROUGH TOMORROW, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE OUR
HIGHEST POPS (50%) UNTIL THEN. THIS ISN'T TO SAY THAT THE HOLIDAY
WILL BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT, BUT ANYONE WITH PLANS OUTSIDE DURING
THE DAY WILL WANT TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER, YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK.
BY SUNDAY, THE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THIS WILL GIVE SOME RIDGING THE OPPORTUNITY TO
BUILD IN, AND WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LOOK MORE SEASONABLE. IT IS
JUST DIFFICULT TO OFFER MUCH INSIGHT AS TO WHAT THE PATTERN WILL
LOOK LIKE, SINCE THIS WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WEAK LOW/TROUGHING PATTERN WE HAVE TO GET THROUGH FIRST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, TROUGHING WILL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO FLORIDA TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH THE FLORIDA
KEYS LOCAL WATERS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS PATTERN. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SUSTAINED GENTLE TO MODESTLY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES,
AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE TROUGH EXITS
THE REGION AND LIFTS NORTHEAST STARTING SUNDAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS
WILL LIE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS, RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT TO
GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, THOUGH BRIEF TRANSIENT EPISODES OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AS SKY COVERAGE WAXES AND WANES. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, BUT COVERAGE AND
TIMING ARE UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE INCLUSION IN THE TAF FOR
THE MOMENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BUT COULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES.
CLIMATE
JULY 4, ON THIS DAY IN 1947, THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 6.07" WAS
RECORDED AT KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 90 81 90 82 / 50 50 50 30
MARATHON 88 81 88 81 / 50 50 50 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MC
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
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