867  
FXUS62 KKEY 041501  
AFDKEY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL  
1101 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION  
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SAGGING  
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF AMERICA.  
A BROAD REGION OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE STRETCHES FROM THE  
ATLANTIC BIGHT TO THE EASTERN GULF. THE SHARPEST CURVATURE IS TO  
THE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE WHERE AL92 FORMED OVERNIGHT. VIS/IR  
SANDWICH IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN  
GULF THAT TRANSITIONS INTO WEAKLY CONFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLIES NEAR  
THE KEYS. THE 12Z KKEY RAOB SAMPLED THESE SOUTHWESTERLIES FROM  
NEAR THE SURFACE TO NEAR 600 MB. THE PROFILE IS MOIST,  
UNINHIBITED, AND COMPOSED OF MODERATE ML INSTABILITY. DEWPOINT  
DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 900 AND 500 MB RANGE FROM 3-8 DEGC, AND  
INDICATIVE OF THE SHORT LIFE CYCLE OF THIS MORNING'S SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPDRAFTS FREELY CONVECT, BUT END UP QUICKLY  
ENTRAINING DRY AIR. CIRA'S LPW 700-500 MB PRODUCT PLACES A NARROW  
RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE KEYS, WITH A POTENT DRY  
SLUG AT THE LATITUDE OF FORT MYERS. THIS SLUG SHOULD PIVOT THROUGH  
THE KEYS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY  
MORNING. UNTIL THEN, 50% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS  
TO BE APPROPRIATE. FOR THIS EVENING'S FESTIVITIES, DAY TIME  
HEATING SHOULD FULLY MAINTAIN THE SCATTERED COVERAGE TOWARDS  
SUNSET. LAV STATISTICAL AND HREF LIGHTNING PROBABILITIES SUGGEST  
REDUCED COVERAGE AFTER DARK. AND YET, THE CONFLUENT  
SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL STILL BE IN PLACE, SO BRING AN UMBRELLA, AND  
REMEMBER, WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES CURRENTLY IN EFFECT  
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A DEEP  
TROUGH COMPLEX OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AND FLORIDA WILL MAINTAIN  
GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST STARTING SUNDAY, A WEAK  
RIDGE AXIS WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA,  
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY  
BREEZES.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(15Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
RADAR TRENDS HIGHLIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS  
THE KEYS THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE HAS BEEN FAVORED NEAR AND  
TO THE WEST OF EYW. THE LIFE CYCLE OF THESE STORMS HAS BEEN 45  
MINUTES OR LESS, SO TIMING TEMPOS IN THE ADVERTISED TAFS REMAINS  
DIFFICULT. CHANCES FOR TEMPORARY CONVECTIVE IMPACTS REMAINS ABOVE  
NORMAL (50%) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS MORNING'S  
THUNDERSTORM NEAR EYW, MVFR CIGS, IFR VIS, AND CONVECTIVE WIND  
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
KEY WEST 91 81 91 82 / 50 50 50 40  
MARATHON 89 81 88 81 / 50 50 50 50  
 
 
   
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...CLR  
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....CLR  
DATA ACQUISITION.....CLR  
 
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