867
FXUS62 KKEY 041501
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1101 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SAGGING
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF AMERICA.
A BROAD REGION OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE STRETCHES FROM THE
ATLANTIC BIGHT TO THE EASTERN GULF. THE SHARPEST CURVATURE IS TO
THE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE WHERE AL92 FORMED OVERNIGHT. VIS/IR
SANDWICH IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF THAT TRANSITIONS INTO WEAKLY CONFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLIES NEAR
THE KEYS. THE 12Z KKEY RAOB SAMPLED THESE SOUTHWESTERLIES FROM
NEAR THE SURFACE TO NEAR 600 MB. THE PROFILE IS MOIST,
UNINHIBITED, AND COMPOSED OF MODERATE ML INSTABILITY. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 900 AND 500 MB RANGE FROM 3-8 DEGC, AND
INDICATIVE OF THE SHORT LIFE CYCLE OF THIS MORNING'S SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPDRAFTS FREELY CONVECT, BUT END UP QUICKLY
ENTRAINING DRY AIR. CIRA'S LPW 700-500 MB PRODUCT PLACES A NARROW
RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE KEYS, WITH A POTENT DRY
SLUG AT THE LATITUDE OF FORT MYERS. THIS SLUG SHOULD PIVOT THROUGH
THE KEYS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. UNTIL THEN, 50% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS
TO BE APPROPRIATE. FOR THIS EVENING'S FESTIVITIES, DAY TIME
HEATING SHOULD FULLY MAINTAIN THE SCATTERED COVERAGE TOWARDS
SUNSET. LAV STATISTICAL AND HREF LIGHTNING PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
REDUCED COVERAGE AFTER DARK. AND YET, THE CONFLUENT
SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL STILL BE IN PLACE, SO BRING AN UMBRELLA, AND
REMEMBER, WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A DEEP
TROUGH COMPLEX OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AND FLORIDA WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST STARTING SUNDAY, A WEAK
RIDGE AXIS WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA,
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY
BREEZES.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
RADAR TRENDS HIGHLIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE KEYS THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE HAS BEEN FAVORED NEAR AND
TO THE WEST OF EYW. THE LIFE CYCLE OF THESE STORMS HAS BEEN 45
MINUTES OR LESS, SO TIMING TEMPOS IN THE ADVERTISED TAFS REMAINS
DIFFICULT. CHANCES FOR TEMPORARY CONVECTIVE IMPACTS REMAINS ABOVE
NORMAL (50%) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS MORNING'S
THUNDERSTORM NEAR EYW, MVFR CIGS, IFR VIS, AND CONVECTIVE WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 81 91 82 / 50 50 50 40
MARATHON 89 81 88 81 / 50 50 50 50
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....CLR
DATA ACQUISITION.....CLR
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