662  
FXUS62 KKEY 041815 AAA  
AFDKEY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL  
215 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
 
 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS ON THE WANE ACROSS THE FLORIDA  
KEYS, AND YET THERE REMAINS A BROKEN LINE APPROACHING MTH. WE  
INCLUDED A TEMPO -TSRA FOR MTH AS THE LIGHT TO MODERATE DECAYING  
RAIN SHIELD SCRAPES THROUGH VACA KEY. ALSO THERE ARE NEW CLUSTERS  
EXITING THE DRY TORTUGAS, BUT WE ARE LESS CONFIDENT THESE  
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SURVIVE THE JOURNEY TO EYW. THE LOW-LEVEL  
PROFILE REMAINS CYCLONIC AND CONFLUENT, A RECIPE FOR MAINTAINING  
RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,  
WHEN DRIER AIR MAY ARRIVE.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SAGGING  
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF AMERICA.  
A BROAD REGION OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE STRETCHES FROM THE  
ATLANTIC BIGHT TO THE EASTERN GULF. THE SHARPEST CURVATURE IS TO  
THE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE WHERE AL92 FORMED OVERNIGHT. VIS/IR  
SANDWICH IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN  
GULF THAT TRANSITIONS INTO WEAKLY CONFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLIES NEAR  
THE KEYS. THE 12Z KKEY RAOB SAMPLED THESE SOUTHWESTERLIES FROM  
NEAR THE SURFACE TO NEAR 600 MB. THE PROFILE IS MOIST,  
UNINHIBITED, AND COMPOSED OF MODERATE ML INSTABILITY. DEWPOINT  
DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 900 AND 500 MB RANGE FROM 3-8 DEGC, AND  
INDICATIVE OF THE SHORT LIFE CYCLE OF THIS MORNING'S SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPDRAFTS FREELY CONVECT, BUT END UP QUICKLY  
ENTRAINING DRY AIR. CIRA'S LPW 700-500 MB PRODUCT PLACES A NARROW  
RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE KEYS, WITH A POTENT DRY  
SLUG AT THE LATITUDE OF FORT MYERS. THIS SLUG SHOULD PIVOT THROUGH  
THE KEYS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY  
MORNING. UNTIL THEN, 50% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS  
TO BE APPROPRIATE. FOR THIS EVENING'S FESTIVITIES, DAY TIME  
HEATING SHOULD FULLY MAINTAIN THE SCATTERED COVERAGE TOWARDS  
SUNSET. LAV STATISTICAL AND HREF LIGHTNING PROBABILITIES SUGGEST  
REDUCED COVERAGE AFTER DARK. AND YET, THE CONFLUENT  
SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL STILL BE IN PLACE, SO BRING AN UMBRELLA, AND  
REMEMBER, WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS.  
 

 
   
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...CLR  
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....CLR  
DATA ACQUISITION.....CLR  
 
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