855  
FXUS62 KKEY 050233  
AFDKEY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL  
1033 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION  
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO STEW IN PLACE OFF THE CAROLINA  
COAST THIS EVENING. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT OUR  
AREA, ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING DOES STRETCH QUITE FAR TO  
THE SOUTHWEST AND HAS PLAYED A ROLE IN A PRECIPITABLE WATER WELL  
ABOVE 2 INCHES. THIS LOW/TROUGHING IS ALSO KEEPING THE ATLANTIC  
RIDGE DISPLACED EAST OF OUR AREA, RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO  
WESTERLY BREEZES. THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED  
CONSIDERABLE CAPE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INHIBITION. WITH THAT  
SAID, SHOWERS HAVE STRUGGLED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE  
EVENING. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE  
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN OUR AREA.  
 
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN, BECOMING  
A TROPICAL STORM, AS IT MEANDERS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT.  
THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT TO THE OVERALL SHAPE OF SYNOPTIC  
SCALE FEATURES IN OUR AREA. HOWEVER, CONFLUENCE SHOULD INCREASE  
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, AS IS ALMOST ALWAYS THE CASE DURING THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE AND CAPE, ALONG WITH  
LIMITED INHIBITION, THE CURRENT LACK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD GIVE WAY  
TO AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL  
REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS  
IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 70S.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
THE COMBINATION OF A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DEPRESSION OFF THE  
CAROLINA COAST AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OFF TO OUR EAST WILL RESULT  
IN LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES ON KEYS WATERS  
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE IN  
FIRST PERIOD WIND WORDING IN THE EVENING MARINE UPDATE.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.  
WITH THAT SAID, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS DUE  
TO SHOWERS, AND A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SURFACE WINDS  
WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST.  
 
 
   
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11  
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11  
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP  
 
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