855
FXUS62 KKEY 050233
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1033 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO STEW IN PLACE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THIS EVENING. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT OUR
AREA, ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING DOES STRETCH QUITE FAR TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND HAS PLAYED A ROLE IN A PRECIPITABLE WATER WELL
ABOVE 2 INCHES. THIS LOW/TROUGHING IS ALSO KEEPING THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE DISPLACED EAST OF OUR AREA, RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY BREEZES. THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED
CONSIDERABLE CAPE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INHIBITION. WITH THAT
SAID, SHOWERS HAVE STRUGGLED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN OUR AREA.
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN, BECOMING
A TROPICAL STORM, AS IT MEANDERS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT TO THE OVERALL SHAPE OF SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES IN OUR AREA. HOWEVER, CONFLUENCE SHOULD INCREASE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, AS IS ALMOST ALWAYS THE CASE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE AND CAPE, ALONG WITH
LIMITED INHIBITION, THE CURRENT LACK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
THE COMBINATION OF A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DEPRESSION OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OFF TO OUR EAST WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES ON KEYS WATERS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE IN
FIRST PERIOD WIND WORDING IN THE EVENING MARINE UPDATE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
WITH THAT SAID, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO SHOWERS, AND A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page