168
FXUS62 KKEY 050939
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
539 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT, AND IT IS JUST A LITTLE BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN OUR
PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT. LAST NIGHT, WE WERE LACKING A LIFTING
MECHANISM TO GET ANYTHING GOING, BUT SOME LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENCE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS ENCOURAGED SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA.
AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN SHOW RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH, WHICH ISN'T
SURPRISING BECAUSE NOTHING ON RADAR HAS LOOKED PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE. RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR SHOWERS OVER THE
NEARBY WATERS ALSO SHOW FAIRLY MEAGER VALUES, BUT THIS WILL LIKELY
CHANGE DURING THE DAY TODAY WHEN DAYTIME HEATING CAN AID IN
SETTING UP A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IR IMAGERY FROM GOES-18
SHOWS THAT THE IMPRESSIVE, DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE. OUR
PROXIMITY TO THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TODAY, AND THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT FOR A REVERSE
CLOUDLINE. ON TOP OF THAT, CIMSS PWAT CURRENTLY SHOWS VALUES OVER
2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WE STILL HAVE A FEW HOURS
BEFORE OUR 12Z BALLOON IS LAUNCHED, AND BEFORE WE CAN SEE A REAL-
TIME VERTICAL PROFILE OF THE ATMOSPHERE, BUT CIRA LPW IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT WE ARE FAIRLY MOIST BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 500 MB.
WITH THE ATMOSPHERE PRIMED, WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON 50 PERCENT
POPS FOR TODAY, BUT BRING DOWN POPS FOR TONIGHT TO 40 PERCENT DUE
TO A SLIVER OR RELATIVELY DRIER AIR EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.
AFTER TODAY, THE DISTURBANCES OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, AND RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINATE PATTERN
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE AXIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LIFT
THROUGH FLORIDA SOMETIME BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. AN
EMBEDDED POCKET OF DRIER AIR WILL HELP TO BRING POPS DOWN TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THAT STILL BEARS GREAT UNCERTAINTY. GUIDANCE IS
PICKING UP ON FLUCTUATING POPS AND SKY COVER OVER THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. GLOBAL MODELS ARE RESOLVING EITHER A
TUTT OR AN INVERTED RIDGE UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE POPS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT OVER
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT THE PRECISE DETAILS WILL NEED TO
BE WORKED OUT IN A FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGE SINCE WE ARE A LITTLE
TOO FAR OUT FROM HONING IN ON ANY MEANINGFUL DETAILS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A DEEP TROUGH COMPLEX
OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AND FLORIDA WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE SOUTHWEST
BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THE TODAY. AS THE TROUGH
LIFTS NORTHEAST STARTING SUNDAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL REBUILD
ACROSS THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA, RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, THOUGH BRIEF TRANSIENT EPISODES OF MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AS SKY COVERAGE WAXES AND WANES AND WITH
ANY PASSING SHOWERS. VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS THROUGH
18Z DUE TO ELEVATED (50%) CHANCES, BUT IT'S LIKELY THAT MOST TIME
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN WILL BE TS-FREE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, THOUGH HIGHER GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS.
CLIMATE
IN 2021, TROPICAL STORM ELSA MOVED ROUGHLY 55 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST
LATE JULY 5TH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON JULY 6TH, WITH THE CENTER OF
THE STORM PASSING IN BETWEEN KEY WEST AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. IT
PRODUCED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 52 MPH AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT AND 48 KNOTS AT SMITH SHOAL LIGHT, WITH WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH
AND 58 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY. RAINFALL TOTALS WERE THE HIGHEST IN KEY
WEST AS WELL WITH KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT MEASURING 4.49
INCHES, THE NWS KEY WEST OFFICE MEASURING 6.62 INCHES, WITH A
MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 7.54 INCHES ON CATHERINE STREET IN KEY
WEST. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WERE NOTED FROM TROPICAL STORM ELSA
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING OF 6 TO 10 INCHES
IN DEPTH IN OLD TOWN AND MIDTOWN KEY WEST AS STRONG RAIN BANDS WITH
HIGH RAINFALL RATES MOVED ACROSS THE ISLAND. OTHERWISE, MOST DAMAGE
WAS CONFINED TO WIDELY-SEPARATED DOWNED TREE LIMBS FROM KEY WEST TO
THE SADDLEBUNCH KEYS DUE TO NEARLY 13 HOURS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
GUSTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 90 82 91 82 / 50 40 20 20
MARATHON 89 81 89 82 / 50 40 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MC
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
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