985
FXUS62 KKEY 051503
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1103 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
ANOTHER ACTIVE MORNING CONTINUES FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. A CORRIDOR
OF CONFLUENCE ALONG WITH AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE HAS RESULTED IN
CONVECTION BUBBLING ALONG AND AROUND EXISTING BOUNDARIES. DESPITE
A SEEMINGLY UNINHIBITED ENVIRONMENT, NOT MANY SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED INTO THUNDERSTORMS AND, IF THEY DO, TEND TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY. ONE POSSIBLE HINT AS TO WHY THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT HOLDING
TOGETHER CAN BE FOUND IN THIS MORNING'S KKEY 12Z SOUNDING WHERE A
LARGE SPIKE OF DRY AIR IS OBSERVED AROUND 600MB. THIS COULD BE
THOUGHT AS STRANGE AS ONE WOULD ASSUME AMPLE MOIST AIR IS BEING
PULLED INTO OUR AREA ON THE TAIL END OF NEWLY NAMED TROPICAL
STORM CHANTAL AS IT TRUDGES SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST. CIMSS MIMIC TPW DOES NOTE A DRY SLOT IN CHANTAL'S TAIL
EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF.
WHILE THIS FEATURE COULD SPELL SOME DOOM FOR SHOWERS IN ITS
IMMEDIATE AREA, CONVECTION IS STILL PROGGED TO WAX AND WANE AROUND
THE ISLAND CHAIN INTO THIS AFTERNOON. 50% POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR THIS REASON. MEANWHILE, MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES PREVAIL ALONG THE REEF OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE.
THESE ARE SET TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TODAY, ONLY GRADUALLY
BACKING TO THE SOUTH AND SLACKENING TONIGHT AS CHANTAL LIMPS INTO
SOUTH CAROLINA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A DEEP
TROUGH COMPLEX OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AND FLORIDA WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH TODAY. AS
THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST STARTING SUNDAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS
WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA, RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING AROUND THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH
A HANDFUL CROSSING INTO THE VICINITY OF EYW AND MTH. WILL LIKELY
KEEP VCSH IN BOTH TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING AND ADD ON SHORT TERM
AMENDMENTS FOR IMMEDIATE IMPACTS AS EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS IS UNCERTAIN. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT NEAR 10 KNOTS, SLACKENING AND BACKING TO THE SOUTH
LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.
CLIMATE
IN 2021, TROPICAL STORM ELSA MOVED ROUGHLY 55 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST
LATE JULY 5TH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON JULY 6TH, WITH THE CENTER OF
THE STORM PASSING IN BETWEEN KEY WEST AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. IT
PRODUCED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 52 MPH AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT AND 48 KNOTS AT SMITH SHOAL LIGHT, WITH WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH
AND 58 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY. RAINFALL TOTALS WERE THE HIGHEST IN KEY
WEST AS WELL WITH KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT MEASURING 4.49
INCHES, THE NWS KEY WEST OFFICE MEASURING 6.62 INCHES, WITH A
MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 7.54 INCHES ON CATHERINE STREET IN KEY
WEST. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WERE NOTED FROM TROPICAL STORM ELSA
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING OF 6 TO 10 INCHES
IN DEPTH IN OLD TOWN AND MIDTOWN KEY WEST AS STRONG RAIN BANDS WITH
HIGH RAINFALL RATES MOVED ACROSS THE ISLAND. OTHERWISE, MOST DAMAGE
WAS CONFINED TO WIDELY-SEPARATED DOWNED TREE LIMBS FROM KEY WEST TO
THE SADDLEBUNCH KEYS DUE TO NEARLY 13 HOURS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
GUSTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 90 82 91 82 / 50 40 20 20
MARATHON 89 81 89 82 / 50 40 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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