302
FXUS62 KKEY 051849
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
249 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH FOR
THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PASS IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING, AND THEN
RAIN CHANCES WILL FALL OVERNIGHT. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL START
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS,
GRADUALLY SLACKENING AND BACKING TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
ANOTHER ACTIVE MORNING CONTINUES FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. A CORRIDOR
OF CONFLUENCE ALONG WITH AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE HAS RESULTED IN
CONVECTION BUBBLING ALONG AND AROUND EXISTING BOUNDARIES. DESPITE
A SEEMINGLY UNINHIBITED ENVIRONMENT, NOT MANY SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED INTO THUNDERSTORMS AND, IF THEY DO, TEND TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY. ONE POSSIBLE HINT AS TO WHY THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT HOLDING
TOGETHER CAN BE FOUND IN THIS MORNING'S KKEY 12Z SOUNDING WHERE A
LARGE SPIKE OF DRY AIR IS OBSERVED AROUND 600MB. THIS COULD BE
THOUGHT AS STRANGE AS ONE WOULD ASSUME AMPLE MOIST AIR IS BEING
PULLED INTO OUR AREA ON THE TAIL END OF NEWLY NAMED TROPICAL
STORM CHANTAL AS IT TRUDGES SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST. CIMSS MIMIC TPW DOES NOTE A DRY SLOT IN CHANTAL'S TAIL
EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF.
WHILE THIS FEATURE COULD SPELL SOME DOOM FOR SHOWERS IN ITS
IMMEDIATE AREA, CONVECTION IS STILL PROGGED TO WAX AND WANE AROUND
THE ISLAND CHAIN INTO THIS AFTERNOON. 50% POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR THIS REASON. MEANWHILE, MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES PREVAIL ALONG THE REEF OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE.
THESE ARE SET TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TODAY, ONLY GRADUALLY
BACKING TO THE SOUTH AND SLACKENING TONIGHT AS CHANTAL LIMPS INTO
SOUTH CAROLINA.
FORECAST
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
AFTER TODAY, THE DISTURBANCES OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, AND RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINATE PATTERN
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE AXIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LIFT
THROUGH FLORIDA SOMETIME BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. AN
EMBEDDED POCKET OF DRIER AIR WILL HELP TO BRING POPS DOWN TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THAT STILL BEARS GREAT UNCERTAINTY. GUIDANCE IS
PICKING UP ON FLUCTUATING POPS AND SKY COVER OVER THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. GLOBAL MODELS ARE RESOLVING EITHER A
TUTT OR AN INVERTED RIDGE UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE POPS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT OVER
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT THE PRECISE DETAILS WILL NEED TO
BE WORKED OUT IN A FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGE SINCE WE ARE A LITTLE
TOO FAR OUT FROM HONING IN ON ANY MEANINGFUL DETAILS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A DEEP
TROUGH COMPLEX OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AND FLORIDA WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH TODAY. AS
THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST STARTING SUNDAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS
WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA, RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 82 91 82 91 / 40 20 20 20
MARATHON 81 89 82 89 / 40 20 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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