602  
FXUS62 KKEY 060946  
AFDKEY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL  
546 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION  
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
OUR KBYX RADAR HAD A BUSY START TO THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT LATE LAST  
NIGHT AS A BOUNDARY COLLISION TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN  
TRIGGERED AN EXTENSIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THAT  
LINE STARTED TO DETERIORATE, NEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAUSED SOME  
SHOWERS TO CROSS OVER A FEW ISLAND COMMUNITIES. AUTOMATED SURFACE  
OBSERVATIONS REPORTED A WIDE RANGE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM JUST A  
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH UP TO HALF OF AN INCH WHERE THE  
HEAVIEST SHOWERS OCCURRED. THE CELLS THAT LOOKED LIKE THEY WERE  
THE STRONGEST REMAINED OVER THE WATER, BUT RADAR DERIVED ESTIMATES  
SUGGEST THAT OUR LOCAL MARINE LIFE MAY HAVE SEEN ROUGHLY 1 TO 3  
INCHES OF RAIN. ALMOST SURPRISINGLY, VIRTUALLY ALL OF THIS  
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED, AND WE ARE ONLY LEFT WITH SOME GHOST  
BOUNDARIES. CIMSS MIMIC PWAT SHOWS VALUES OF ROUGHLY 1.5 TO 2”  
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF  
VALUES AROUND 1.3” ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. OPTED TO BRING POPS  
DOWN TO 30 PERCENT FOR TODAY DUE TO BOTH THE REDUCED MOISTURE, AND  
THE FACT THAT THIS IS AN ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS BEEN WORKED OVER TO  
SOME DEGREE.  
 
TODAY, RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN AS TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL  
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS,  
BREEZES WILL SLOWLY TURN FROM SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO  
SOUTHEASTERLY. WHILE ANY FLOW WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ISN’T  
NECESSARILY EFFICIENT WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE ADVECTION, DEW  
POINTS DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AGAIN,  
MAKING FOR A STICKY AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT TO GENTLE NATURE OF OUR  
BREEZE WON’T OFFER MUCH RELIEF. OVER THE START OF THE NEW WORK  
WEEK, WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HOT, BUT BENIGN, AS THE RIDGE  
AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF.  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS THE TIMEFRAME THAT IS STILL CAUSING  
SOME RAISED EYEBROWS. A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE LOOKS LIKE  
IT’LL PASS ACROSS THE REGION, AND COULD LEAD TO SOME UNSETTLED  
WEATHER. THE HESITANCY HERE STEMS FROM A LACK OF CONFIDENCE  
REGARDING THE DIRECT IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON OUR SENSIBLE  
WEATHER. THE IMPACT WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE, HOW  
CLOSE (OR FAR) IT TRACKS FROM US, HOW FAST (OR SLOW) IT MOVES,  
ETC. FOR NOW, WE’LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POPS JUST A LITTLE BIT  
HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHILE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS, AND WE ENCOURAGE  
EVERYONE TO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS THIS FORECAST BECOMES  
CLEARER.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
WEAK RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA  
TODAY, CAUSING LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES TO BACK FROM SOUTH TO  
SOUTHEAST, AND EVENTUALLY ASSUMING AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY  
TONIGHT. THESE LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL  
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK, BUT AN EASTERLY  
WAVE MAY RESULT IN SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE  
TAF PERIOD, THOUGH BRIEF TRANSIENT EPISODES OF MVFR CIGS AND  
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AS SKY COVERAGE WAXES AND WANES. A PASSING  
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT  
TIMING AND COVERAGE IS TOO UNCERTAIN FOR TAF INCLUSION, SO  
AMENDMENTS AND LATER ROUTINE TAFS WILL COVER ACTIVITY THAT DOES  
OCCUR. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO  
10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER GUSTS  
ARE POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS.  
 
 
   
CLIMATE  
 
ON THIS DAY IN 1957, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 86F  
WAS RECORDED AT MARATHON. THIS IS ALSO THE WARMEST LOW  
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT MARATHON DURING THE MONTH OF JULY.  
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1950.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
KEY WEST 91 81 91 81 / 30 20 20 20  
MARATHON 88 82 89 81 / 30 20 20 20  
 
 
   
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP  
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MC  
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC  
 
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