602
FXUS62 KKEY 060946
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
546 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
OUR KBYX RADAR HAD A BUSY START TO THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT LATE LAST
NIGHT AS A BOUNDARY COLLISION TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN
TRIGGERED AN EXTENSIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THAT
LINE STARTED TO DETERIORATE, NEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAUSED SOME
SHOWERS TO CROSS OVER A FEW ISLAND COMMUNITIES. AUTOMATED SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS REPORTED A WIDE RANGE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM JUST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH UP TO HALF OF AN INCH WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS OCCURRED. THE CELLS THAT LOOKED LIKE THEY WERE
THE STRONGEST REMAINED OVER THE WATER, BUT RADAR DERIVED ESTIMATES
SUGGEST THAT OUR LOCAL MARINE LIFE MAY HAVE SEEN ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN. ALMOST SURPRISINGLY, VIRTUALLY ALL OF THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED, AND WE ARE ONLY LEFT WITH SOME GHOST
BOUNDARIES. CIMSS MIMIC PWAT SHOWS VALUES OF ROUGHLY 1.5 TO 2”
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF
VALUES AROUND 1.3” ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. OPTED TO BRING POPS
DOWN TO 30 PERCENT FOR TODAY DUE TO BOTH THE REDUCED MOISTURE, AND
THE FACT THAT THIS IS AN ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS BEEN WORKED OVER TO
SOME DEGREE.
TODAY, RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN AS TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS,
BREEZES WILL SLOWLY TURN FROM SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY. WHILE ANY FLOW WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ISN’T
NECESSARILY EFFICIENT WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE ADVECTION, DEW
POINTS DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AGAIN,
MAKING FOR A STICKY AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT TO GENTLE NATURE OF OUR
BREEZE WON’T OFFER MUCH RELIEF. OVER THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK, WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HOT, BUT BENIGN, AS THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS THE TIMEFRAME THAT IS STILL CAUSING
SOME RAISED EYEBROWS. A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE LOOKS LIKE
IT’LL PASS ACROSS THE REGION, AND COULD LEAD TO SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER. THE HESITANCY HERE STEMS FROM A LACK OF CONFIDENCE
REGARDING THE DIRECT IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. THE IMPACT WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE, HOW
CLOSE (OR FAR) IT TRACKS FROM US, HOW FAST (OR SLOW) IT MOVES,
ETC. FOR NOW, WE’LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POPS JUST A LITTLE BIT
HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHILE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS, AND WE ENCOURAGE
EVERYONE TO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS THIS FORECAST BECOMES
CLEARER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
WEAK RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY, CAUSING LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES TO BACK FROM SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST, AND EVENTUALLY ASSUMING AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY
TONIGHT. THESE LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK, BUT AN EASTERLY
WAVE MAY RESULT IN SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, THOUGH BRIEF TRANSIENT EPISODES OF MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AS SKY COVERAGE WAXES AND WANES. A PASSING
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT
TIMING AND COVERAGE IS TOO UNCERTAIN FOR TAF INCLUSION, SO
AMENDMENTS AND LATER ROUTINE TAFS WILL COVER ACTIVITY THAT DOES
OCCUR. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1957, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 86F
WAS RECORDED AT MARATHON. THIS IS ALSO THE WARMEST LOW
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT MARATHON DURING THE MONTH OF JULY.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 81 91 81 / 30 20 20 20
MARATHON 88 82 89 81 / 30 20 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MC
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page