749  
FXUS62 KKEY 061450  
AFDKEY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL  
1050 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
SOMEWHAT NORMAL JULY CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO RETURN TO THE  
FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE OBSERVED OVER OUR AREA  
ON GOES-19 VISIBILE IMAGERY. CLOUD COVER THAT DOES EXIST IS DUE TO  
RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND  
SOME LINES OF CUMULUS FORMING ALONG LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES. KBYX  
CONTINUES TO DETECT POPCORN CONVECTION ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WITH  
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE GULF NORTH OF THE  
LOWER KEYS. WHILE A FEW CELLS HAVE OVERACHIEVED EXPECTED  
INTENSITIES, ANY ONE STORM HAS BEEN FAIRLY SHORT LIVED USUALLY  
COLLAPSING MERE MOMENTS AFTER REACHING ITS PEAK. THIS WAS THE  
TREND EARLY YESTERDAY, THOUGH THIS TIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE A LITTLE  
MORE COMMON WITH MORE MOISTURE IN THE AIR AS NOTED BY A PW ABOVE  
2 INCHES IN OUR 12Z SOUNDING. THERE IS STILL A DRY SPIKE OF AIR  
JUST BELOW 500 MB ALONG WITH A SLOWING AND BACKING OF WINDS AROUND  
THE SAME SPOT CREATING A SOMEWHAT STAGNANT LAYER DIFFICULT FOR  
DEEP CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN IN.  
 
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE REEF WILL  
STICK AROUND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO  
SLACKEN AND BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION  
CHANTAL FALLS APART AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS.  
THIS WILL ALLOW THE USUAL LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE  
KEYS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES GO,  
THE REST OF TODAY LOOKS A LITTLE TRICKY. SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES  
ALONG WITH ALREADY EXISTING BOUNDARIES AND FORMING CLOUD STREAMERS  
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN LEANS TOWARDS HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS.  
BUT, AS SOON AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, A  
CUBAN SHADOW COULD SHUT DOWN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. OPTING TO  
HOLD ON TO NEAR NORMAL POPS (~25% ROUNDED UP) TO DEAL WITH EARLY  
CONVECTION AND KEEPING THE IDEA THAT CHANCES WILL FALL BY TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR  
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, WEAK  
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, CAUSING LIGHT  
TO GENTLE BREEZES TO BACK FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST, AND EVENTUALLY  
ASSUMING AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY TONIGHT. THESE LIGHT TO GENTLE  
EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES  
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE  
START OF THE WEEK, BUT AN EASTERLY WAVE MAY RESULT IN SOME  
UNSETTLED WEATHER SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(15Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TODAY. WHILE A  
PASSING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT (ESPECIALLY EARLIER TODAY)  
COVERAGE IS TOO SCARCE AND CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS TOO LOW TO  
INCLUDE MENTION IN EITHER TAF FOR NOW. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE  
OUT OF THE THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING  
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATER TODAY.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ON THIS DAY IN 1957, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 86F  
WAS RECORDED AT MARATHON. THIS IS ALSO THE WARMEST LOW  
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT MARATHON DURING THE MONTH OF JULY.  
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1950.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
KEY WEST 91 81 91 81 / 30 20 20 20  
MARATHON 88 82 89 81 / 30 20 20 20  
 

 
   
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM  
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM  
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM  
 
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