749
FXUS62 KKEY 061450
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1050 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SOMEWHAT NORMAL JULY CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO RETURN TO THE
FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE OBSERVED OVER OUR AREA
ON GOES-19 VISIBILE IMAGERY. CLOUD COVER THAT DOES EXIST IS DUE TO
RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND
SOME LINES OF CUMULUS FORMING ALONG LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES. KBYX
CONTINUES TO DETECT POPCORN CONVECTION ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WITH
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE GULF NORTH OF THE
LOWER KEYS. WHILE A FEW CELLS HAVE OVERACHIEVED EXPECTED
INTENSITIES, ANY ONE STORM HAS BEEN FAIRLY SHORT LIVED USUALLY
COLLAPSING MERE MOMENTS AFTER REACHING ITS PEAK. THIS WAS THE
TREND EARLY YESTERDAY, THOUGH THIS TIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE A LITTLE
MORE COMMON WITH MORE MOISTURE IN THE AIR AS NOTED BY A PW ABOVE
2 INCHES IN OUR 12Z SOUNDING. THERE IS STILL A DRY SPIKE OF AIR
JUST BELOW 500 MB ALONG WITH A SLOWING AND BACKING OF WINDS AROUND
THE SAME SPOT CREATING A SOMEWHAT STAGNANT LAYER DIFFICULT FOR
DEEP CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN IN.
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE REEF WILL
STICK AROUND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
SLACKEN AND BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION
CHANTAL FALLS APART AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE USUAL LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE
KEYS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES GO,
THE REST OF TODAY LOOKS A LITTLE TRICKY. SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES
ALONG WITH ALREADY EXISTING BOUNDARIES AND FORMING CLOUD STREAMERS
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN LEANS TOWARDS HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS.
BUT, AS SOON AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, A
CUBAN SHADOW COULD SHUT DOWN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. OPTING TO
HOLD ON TO NEAR NORMAL POPS (~25% ROUNDED UP) TO DEAL WITH EARLY
CONVECTION AND KEEPING THE IDEA THAT CHANCES WILL FALL BY TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, WEAK
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, CAUSING LIGHT
TO GENTLE BREEZES TO BACK FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST, AND EVENTUALLY
ASSUMING AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY TONIGHT. THESE LIGHT TO GENTLE
EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
START OF THE WEEK, BUT AN EASTERLY WAVE MAY RESULT IN SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TODAY. WHILE A
PASSING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT (ESPECIALLY EARLIER TODAY)
COVERAGE IS TOO SCARCE AND CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN EITHER TAF FOR NOW. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATER TODAY.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1957, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 86F
WAS RECORDED AT MARATHON. THIS IS ALSO THE WARMEST LOW
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT MARATHON DURING THE MONTH OF JULY.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 81 91 81 / 30 20 20 20
MARATHON 88 82 89 81 / 30 20 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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