702  
FXUS62 KKEY 061902  
AFDKEY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL  
302 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH FOR THE REST OF  
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT,  
RAIN CHANCES HAVE FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING WITH LOW COVERAGE AND  
CONFIDENCE IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT LEAVING MENTION OUT OF EITHER  
TAF FOR NOW. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO  
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND DECREASING  
INTO TONIGHT.  
 
 
   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
SOMEWHAT NORMAL JULY CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO RETURN TO THE  
FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE OBSERVED OVER OUR AREA  
ON GOES-19 VISIBILE IMAGERY. CLOUD COVER THAT DOES EXIST IS DUE TO  
RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND  
SOME LINES OF CUMULUS FORMING ALONG LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES. KBYX  
CONTINUES TO DETECT POPCORN CONVECTION ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WITH  
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE GULF NORTH OF THE  
LOWER KEYS. WHILE A FEW CELLS HAVE OVERACHIEVED EXPECTED  
INTENSITIES, ANY ONE STORM HAS BEEN FAIRLY SHORT LIVED USUALLY  
COLLAPSING MERE MOMENTS AFTER REACHING ITS PEAK. THIS WAS THE  
TREND EARLY YESTERDAY, THOUGH THIS TIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE A LITTLE  
MORE COMMON WITH MORE MOISTURE IN THE AIR AS NOTED BY A PW ABOVE  
2 INCHES IN OUR 12Z SOUNDING. THERE IS STILL A DRY SPIKE OF AIR  
JUST BELOW 500 MB ALONG WITH A SLOWING AND BACKING OF WINDS AROUND  
THE SAME SPOT CREATING A SOMEWHAT STAGNANT LAYER DIFFICULT FOR  
DEEP CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN IN.  
 
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE REEF WILL  
STICK AROUND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO  
SLACKEN AND BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION  
CHANTAL FALLS APART AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS.  
THIS WILL ALLOW THE USUAL LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE  
KEYS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES GO,  
THE REST OF TODAY LOOKS A LITTLE TRICKY. SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES  
ALONG WITH ALREADY EXISTING BOUNDARIES AND FORMING CLOUD STREAMERS  
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN LEANS TOWARDS HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS.  
BUT, AS SOON AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, A  
CUBAN SHADOW COULD SHUT DOWN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. OPTING TO  
HOLD ON TO NEAR NORMAL POPS (~25% ROUNDED UP) TO DEAL WITH EARLY  
CONVECTION AND KEEPING THE IDEA THAT CHANCES WILL FALL BY TONIGHT.  
 
 
   
FORECAST  
 
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
TODAY, RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN AS TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL  
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS,  
BREEZES WILL SLOWLY TURN FROM SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO  
SOUTHEASTERLY. WHILE ANY FLOW WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IS NOT  
NECESSARILY EFFICIENT WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE ADVECTION, DEW  
POINTS DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AGAIN,  
MAKING FOR A STICKY AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT TO GENTLE NATURE OF OUR  
BREEZE WON’T OFFER MUCH RELIEF. OVER THE START OF THE NEW WORK  
WEEK, WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HOT, BUT BENIGN, AS THE RIDGE  
AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF.  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS THE TIMEFRAME THAT IS STILL CAUSING  
SOME RAISED EYEBROWS. A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE LOOKS LIKE  
IT’LL PASS ACROSS THE REGION, AND COULD LEAD TO SOME UNSETTLED  
WEATHER. THE HESITANCY HERE STEMS FROM A LACK OF CONFIDENCE  
REGARDING THE DIRECT IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON OUR SENSIBLE  
WEATHER. THE IMPACT WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE, HOW  
CLOSE (OR FAR) IT TRACKS FROM US, HOW FAST (OR SLOW) IT MOVES,  
ETC. FOR NOW, WE’LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POPS JUST A LITTLE BIT  
HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHILE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS, AND WE ENCOURAGE  
EVERYONE TO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS THIS FORECAST BECOMES  
CLEARER.  
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR  
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, WEAK  
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, CAUSING LIGHT  
TO GENTLE BREEZES TO BACK FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST, AND EVENTUALLY  
ASSUMING AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY TONIGHT. THESE LIGHT TO GENTLE  
EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES  
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE  
START OF THE WEEK, BUT AN EASTERLY WAVE MAY RESULT IN SOME  
UNSETTLED WEATHER SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
 
 
   
CLIMATE  
 
ON THIS DAY IN 1957, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 86F  
WAS RECORDED AT MARATHON. THIS IS ALSO THE WARMEST LOW  
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT MARATHON DURING THE MONTH OF JULY.  
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1950.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
KEY WEST 81 91 81 91 / 20 20 20 30  
MARATHON 82 89 81 88 / 20 20 20 30  
 
 
   
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM  
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM  
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM  
 
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