702
FXUS62 KKEY 061902
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
302 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH FOR THE REST OF
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
RAIN CHANCES HAVE FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING WITH LOW COVERAGE AND
CONFIDENCE IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT LEAVING MENTION OUT OF EITHER
TAF FOR NOW. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND DECREASING
INTO TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SOMEWHAT NORMAL JULY CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO RETURN TO THE
FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE OBSERVED OVER OUR AREA
ON GOES-19 VISIBILE IMAGERY. CLOUD COVER THAT DOES EXIST IS DUE TO
RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND
SOME LINES OF CUMULUS FORMING ALONG LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES. KBYX
CONTINUES TO DETECT POPCORN CONVECTION ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WITH
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE GULF NORTH OF THE
LOWER KEYS. WHILE A FEW CELLS HAVE OVERACHIEVED EXPECTED
INTENSITIES, ANY ONE STORM HAS BEEN FAIRLY SHORT LIVED USUALLY
COLLAPSING MERE MOMENTS AFTER REACHING ITS PEAK. THIS WAS THE
TREND EARLY YESTERDAY, THOUGH THIS TIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE A LITTLE
MORE COMMON WITH MORE MOISTURE IN THE AIR AS NOTED BY A PW ABOVE
2 INCHES IN OUR 12Z SOUNDING. THERE IS STILL A DRY SPIKE OF AIR
JUST BELOW 500 MB ALONG WITH A SLOWING AND BACKING OF WINDS AROUND
THE SAME SPOT CREATING A SOMEWHAT STAGNANT LAYER DIFFICULT FOR
DEEP CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN IN.
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE REEF WILL
STICK AROUND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
SLACKEN AND BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION
CHANTAL FALLS APART AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE USUAL LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE
KEYS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES GO,
THE REST OF TODAY LOOKS A LITTLE TRICKY. SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES
ALONG WITH ALREADY EXISTING BOUNDARIES AND FORMING CLOUD STREAMERS
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN LEANS TOWARDS HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS.
BUT, AS SOON AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, A
CUBAN SHADOW COULD SHUT DOWN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. OPTING TO
HOLD ON TO NEAR NORMAL POPS (~25% ROUNDED UP) TO DEAL WITH EARLY
CONVECTION AND KEEPING THE IDEA THAT CHANCES WILL FALL BY TONIGHT.
FORECAST
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
TODAY, RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN AS TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS,
BREEZES WILL SLOWLY TURN FROM SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY. WHILE ANY FLOW WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IS NOT
NECESSARILY EFFICIENT WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE ADVECTION, DEW
POINTS DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AGAIN,
MAKING FOR A STICKY AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT TO GENTLE NATURE OF OUR
BREEZE WON’T OFFER MUCH RELIEF. OVER THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK, WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HOT, BUT BENIGN, AS THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS THE TIMEFRAME THAT IS STILL CAUSING
SOME RAISED EYEBROWS. A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE LOOKS LIKE
IT’LL PASS ACROSS THE REGION, AND COULD LEAD TO SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER. THE HESITANCY HERE STEMS FROM A LACK OF CONFIDENCE
REGARDING THE DIRECT IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. THE IMPACT WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE, HOW
CLOSE (OR FAR) IT TRACKS FROM US, HOW FAST (OR SLOW) IT MOVES,
ETC. FOR NOW, WE’LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POPS JUST A LITTLE BIT
HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHILE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS, AND WE ENCOURAGE
EVERYONE TO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS THIS FORECAST BECOMES
CLEARER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, WEAK
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, CAUSING LIGHT
TO GENTLE BREEZES TO BACK FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST, AND EVENTUALLY
ASSUMING AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY TONIGHT. THESE LIGHT TO GENTLE
EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
START OF THE WEEK, BUT AN EASTERLY WAVE MAY RESULT IN SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1957, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 86F
WAS RECORDED AT MARATHON. THIS IS ALSO THE WARMEST LOW
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT MARATHON DURING THE MONTH OF JULY.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 91 81 91 / 20 20 20 30
MARATHON 82 89 81 88 / 20 20 20 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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