274
FXUS62 KKEY 070905
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
505 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
WE REALLY HIT THE GROUND RUNNING ON THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT LAST NIGHT
WHEN A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER KEYS, VERY TEMPORARILY BRINGING TEMPERATURES
DOWN! THE ASOS AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS
REPORTING AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE
UPPER 90S JUST BEFORE 9 PM EDT LAST NIGHT. BETWEEN 9:30 AND 10
PM, AS THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS UNFOLDED, THE TEMPERATURE AT THE
AIRPORT DROPPED TO THE UPPER 70S WITH NO HEAT INDEX REGISTERING.
THE TEMPERATURE DIDN'T STAY DOWN, AND VERY SHORTLY AFTER THE
ACTIVITY CLEARED UP, WE SETTLED INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. OUR 00Z KEY SOUNDING CALCULATED A PWAT OF 1.89" WHICH
IS JUST BELOW THE 75TH PERCENTILE OF 1.96". THIS VALUE IS PROBABLY
A LITTLE OUTDATED NOW SINCE WE ARE ABOUT TEN HOURS POST-LAUNCH,
SO WE CAN LOOK AT CIMSS MIMIC PWAT AND SEE THAT THERE'S A LARGE
RANGE OF VALUES BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 1.4" TO 2.1". IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE LOWER VALUES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL FOR TODAY SINCE THE
AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA HAS SIMILAR VALUES. ALL WE'RE
TRYING TO SAY IS THAT, COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, OUR AIR IS JUST A
LITTLE BIT DRIER. WE'LL GO AHEAD AND MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BECAUSE SOMEONE WILL PROBABLY SEE A POP
UP SHOWER TODAY. WE AREN'T DRY ENOUGH TO BRING DEW POINTS DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY, SO HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR THE 100F
DEGREE MARK AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S.
WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING THE DOMINANT PATTERN OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE FIRST HALF OF THIS NEW WORK WEEK WILL SEE A
SIMILAR SET UP EACH DAY. OUR EYES ARE STILL ON THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
ARE PICKING UP ON A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WAVE
TRANSVERSING THE REGION OVER THE END OF THE WEEK. IF THE WAVE
TRACKS TO OUR NORTH, THAT COULD LEAD TO LESS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAN IN THE FORECAST. BUT IF IT TRACKS OVERHEAD, WE
WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT A WETTER END TO THE WEEK. FOR NOW,
WE'LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NEAR MID CHANCE POPS, AND SOME CLOUD
COVER THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY BLOCK THE FLORIDA SUNSHINE DURING THE
DAY. BOTH LOCALS AND VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CHECK FOR UPDATES
WHILE WE, AND THE GUIDANCE, TRY TO SORT OUT WHAT THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL LOOK LIKE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, RIDGING DRAPED ACROSS
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CLOSE
TO NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK, BUT AN EASTERLY WAVE MAY
RESULT IN SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVING INTO THE AREA STARTING
WEDNESDAY, AND MAY CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, THOUGH BRIEF TRANSIENT EPISODES OF MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AS SKY COVERAGE WAXES AND WANES. A SLIGHT
(20%) CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT TIMING AND COVERAGE IS TOO UNCERTAIN FOR TAF INCLUSION,
SO AMENDMENTS AND LATER ROUTINE TAFS WILL COVER ACTIVITY THAT DOES
OCCUR. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST. HIGHER GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2024, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 85F
WAS LAST RECORDED AT KEY WEST. ON THE SAME DAY, THE DAILY RECORD
WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 84F WAS LAST RECORDED AT MARATHON.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872, AND FOR MARATHON
TO 1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 82 91 81 / 20 20 20 30
MARATHON 89 82 89 81 / 20 20 20 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MC
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
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