510
FXUS62 KKEY 071507
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1107 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
A PEACEFUL START TO THE WEEK IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
THIS MORNING. GOES-19 VISIBLE IMAGERY NOTES MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH A PATCHY FIELD OF FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS PERCOLATING IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. KBYX RADAR IS
GENERALLY CLEAR OF PRECIPITATING ECHOES BUT HAS DETECTED A BRIEF
POP UP SHOWER OR TWO APPEARING AMONG THE CLOUDS IN THE STRAITS.
LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES PERSIST ALONG THE
REEF AFTER THEY GRADUALLY BACKED FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING WEST FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS TO BLAME
FOR THIS WIND SHIFT THUS LEADING OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER INTO A MORE
NORMAL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DESPITE A RETURN TO FORM,
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SLIGHT AS A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
LINGERS OVER THE KEYS. CIMSS MIMIC PW NOTES VALUES NEAR 1.6 INCHES
PAINTED ACROSS AND IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN
SURROUNDED BY INCREASING VALUES ON ALL SIDES. THIS MORNING'S KKEY
12Z SOUNDING IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A PW OF 1.68 INCHES RECORDED.
THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS A LOW INVERSION AT AROUND 975 MB
RESTRICTING MLCAPE TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG.
A LACK OF INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH WEAK WINDS PROMOTING LITTLE
LIFT (AND BEING THE WRONG DIRECTION FOR CLOUD LINES DEVELOPMENT)
KEEPS POPS AT A LOCAL MINIMUM RELATIVE TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. AS A
RESULT, TEMPERATURES ACROSS ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE ALREADY IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A COUPLE LOCATIONS BREACHING 90. WHILE THERE IS A
COLUMN OF DRIER AIR OBSERVED ABOVE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW
LEVEL INVERSION, SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S LEADING
INTO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A HOT AND MUGGY EARLY JULY DAY. TONIGHT,
BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO BACK, BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AND THEN
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST LEADING UP TO TOMORROW MORNING. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, RIDGING DRAPED
ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK, BUT AN EASTERLY
WAVE MAY RESULT IN SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVING INTO THE AREA
STARTING WEDNESDAY, AND MAY CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TODAY. WHILE A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, LOW CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS NEAR A TERMINAL WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF EITHER TAF FOR
NOW. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING MORE EASTERLY BY THIS EVENING.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2024, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 85F
WAS LAST RECORDED AT KEY WEST. ON THE SAME DAY, THE DAILY RECORD
WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 84F WAS LAST RECORDED AT MARATHON.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872, AND FOR MARATHON
TO 1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 82 91 81 / 20 20 20 30
MARATHON 89 82 89 81 / 20 20 20 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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