687
FXUS62 KKEY 071858
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
258 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WHILE SOME SHOWERS HAVE FORMED NEAR EYW,
THEY HAVE MOSTLY STAYED OUT OF VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. MORE
SHOWERS DEVELOPING CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION RESULTS NO MENTION REQUIRED IN EITHER
TAF AT THIS TIME. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
A PEACEFUL START TO THE WEEK IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
THIS MORNING. GOES-19 VISIBLE IMAGERY NOTES MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH A PATCHY FIELD OF FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS PERCOLATING IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. KBYX RADAR IS
GENERALLY CLEAR OF PRECIPITATING ECHOES BUT HAS DETECTED A BRIEF
POP UP SHOWER OR TWO APPEARING AMONG THE CLOUDS IN THE STRAITS.
LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES PERSIST ALONG THE
REEF AFTER THEY GRADUALLY BACKED FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING WEST FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS TO BLAME
FOR THIS WIND SHIFT THUS LEADING OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER INTO A MORE
NORMAL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DESPITE A RETURN TO FORM,
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SLIGHT AS A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
LINGERS OVER THE KEYS. CIMSS MIMIC PW NOTES VALUES NEAR 1.6 INCHES
PAINTED ACROSS AND IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN
SURROUNDED BY INCREASING VALUES ON ALL SIDES. THIS MORNING'S KKEY
12Z SOUNDING IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A PW OF 1.68 INCHES RECORDED.
THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS A LOW INVERSION AT AROUND 975 MB
RESTRICTING MLCAPE TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG.
A LACK OF INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH WEAK WINDS PROMOTING LITTLE
LIFT (AND BEING THE WRONG DIRECTION FOR CLOUD LINES DEVELOPMENT)
KEEPS POPS AT A LOCAL MINIMUM RELATIVE TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. AS A
RESULT, TEMPERATURES ACROSS ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE ALREADY IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A COUPLE LOCATIONS BREACHING 90. WHILE THERE IS A
COLUMN OF DRIER AIR OBSERVED ABOVE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW
LEVEL INVERSION, SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S LEADING
INTO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A HOT AND MUGGY EARLY JULY DAY. TONIGHT,
BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO BACK, BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AND THEN
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST LEADING UP TO TOMORROW MORNING. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING THE DOMINANT PATTERN OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE FIRST HALF OF THIS NEW WORK WEEK WILL SEE
A SIMILAR SET UP EACH DAY. OUR EYES ARE STILL ON THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
ARE PICKING UP ON A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WAVE
TRANSVERSING THE REGION OVER THE END OF THE WEEK. IF THE WAVE
TRACKS TO OUR NORTH, THAT COULD LEAD TO LESS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAN IN THE FORECAST. BUT IF IT TRACKS OVERHEAD, WE
WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT A WETTER END TO THE WEEK. FOR NOW,
WE'LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NEAR MID CHANCE POPS, AND SOME CLOUD
COVER THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY BLOCK THE FLORIDA SUNSHINE DURING THE
DAY. BOTH LOCALS AND VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CHECK FOR UPDATES
WHILE WE, AND THE GUIDANCE, TRY TO SORT OUT WHAT THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL LOOK LIKE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, RIDGING DRAPED
ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK, BUT AN EASTERLY
WAVE MAY RESULT IN SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVING INTO THE AREA
STARTING WEDNESDAY, AND MAY CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2024, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 85F
WAS LAST RECORDED AT KEY WEST. ON THE SAME DAY, THE DAILY RECORD
WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 84F WAS LAST RECORDED AT MARATHON.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872, AND FOR MARATHON
TO 1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 82 91 81 91 / 20 20 30 40
MARATHON 82 89 81 88 / 20 20 30 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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