963
FXUS62 KKEY 080217
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1017 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
COMPARATIVELY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
WILL BRING THE FIRST MONDAY OF JULY TO A CLOSE. SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS FROM GOES-E ARE HAMPERED BY A THICK LAYER OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS SWEEPING SOUTH FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. KBYX RADAR SCANS
OBSERVED AN IMPRESSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING OVER BIG PINE KEY
NEAR 7 PM, BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHED AFTER SUNSET.
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE KKEY 00Z SOUNDING TODAY HELP EXPLAIN WHY
SHOWERS ARE STRUGGLING. SAMPLED PWAT IS BELOW THE 50TH PERCENTILE
FOR THE DAY WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MLCIN. THAT DOES NOT MEAN
SHOWERS CANNOT FORM AND TAP INTO A DEEPER LAYER OF MLCAPE, LIKE
THE BIG PINE KEY THUNDERSTORM, BUT IT DOES INDICATE A FORCING
MECHANISM IS NECESSARY. BASED ON THE RELATIVELY UNIFORM WIND
FIELD ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS, THE LOW LEVEL LIFT IS NOT PRESENT.
OVERNIGHT, WEATHER PATTERNS WILL RETURN TO MORE 'SEASONAL' TRENDS.
EXPECT EASTERLY BREEZES TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE
ALONG THE STRAITS. SHORT LIVED SHOWERS WILL STILL PULSE INTO BEING
ACROSS THE CWA, AND OCCASIONALLY ONE MIGHT BE ABLE TO BUILD INTO A
THUNDERSTORM. MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
AWAY FROM CONVECTION, EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER
80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A BUILDING
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL SUSTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT AN EASTERLY WAVE AND VEERING
WINDS MAY GENERATE ELEVATED SHOWER COVERAGE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING 00Z
TAF PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE SPARSE, BUT A CARPET OF HIGH ALTITUDE
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER EYW FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED, BUT SHOWERS CAN RAPIDLY DEVELOP TO
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. LOCATION AND TIMING FOR SHOWERS IS
EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN, SO TEMPOS ARE CURRENTLY ABSENT FROM THE TAF.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2024, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 85F
WAS LAST RECORDED AT KEY WEST. ON THE SAME DAY, THE DAILY RECORD
WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 84F WAS LAST RECORDED AT MARATHON.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872, AND FOR MARATHON
TO 1950.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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