923
FXUS62 KKEY 080940
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
540 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT HAS BEEN MOSTLY BENIGN AS OUR KBYX RADAR HAS
BEEN VOID OF ANY SHOWERS, EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE THAT JUST POPPED UP
OVER THE DISTANT FLORIDA STRAITS AS WE WERE TYPING THIS. THE
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY THAT DID OCCUR BEYOND OUR WATERS WAS SHORT
LIVED, SO THESE NEW SHOWERS SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT. THE RADAR MAY BE
PICKING UP ON SOME CLOUD STREAMERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW, BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE
THESE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ON NIGHTTIME GOES-19 IMAGERY. WHAT IS
EASIER TO SEE ON THE SAME IMAGERY IS THE SWATH OF HIGHER LEVEL
CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA, SO WE MAY BE ON TRACK FOR A
BEAUTIFUL SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
THESE QUIETER CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO
THE START OF TOMORROW COURTESY OF HIGHER PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 70S WILL LEAD TO INDICES APPROACHING, AND OCCASIONALLY
SURPASSING, THE 100F DEGREE MARK. LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES
WON'T OFFER MUCH RELIEF, BUT SOME PASSING CLOUDS WILL BRING A
LITTLE BIT OF SHADE.
CIMSS ANALYSIS PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN VERY HELPFUL WHEN IT HAS COME TO
TRYING TO SORT THIS PATTERN OUT. MIMIC LAYER PWAT SHOWS THAT
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST TODAY, BUT AN
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EXISTS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN
CUBA. VORTICITY ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF RELATIVE
VORTICITY AT THE 200 MB LEVEL OVERHEAD, BUT THIS FEATURE IS LOST
AS WE PROGRESS DOWNWARD THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE, AND IS LIKELY
PLAYING A ROLE IN OUR QUIETER RADAR. HOWEVER, AT THE 500MB AND
700MB LEVELS, WE CAN SEE TWO AREAS OF INTEREST OVER THE BAHAMAS,
AND TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA. WITH THE DEEP LAYER STEERING FLOW
LOOKING A LITTLE KINKY, IT IS HARD TO SAY WHICH ONCE OF THESE
AREAS IS GOING TO POSSIBLY RESULT IN SOME ACTIVE WEATHER. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE STILL INDICATING THAT ONE
OF THESE AREAS OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, BRINGING AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND
AN INCREASE IN POPS. FOR NOW, WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POPS
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD, WITH A PEAK OF 50
PERCENT POPS ON THURSDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY MAINLY STEMS FROM
GUIDANCE STRUGGLING TO REFLECT THIS WAVE AT THE SURFACE, BUT THERE
ARE SOME HINTS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A BUILDING ATLANTIC
HIGH WILL SUSTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT AN EASTERLY WAVE AND VEERING WINDS
MAY GENERATE ELEVATED SHOWER COVERAGE FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. A SLIGHT (20%) CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
REMAINS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY
ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS IS TOO UNCERTAIN FOR TAF INCLUSION, SO
AMENDMENTS AND LATER ROUTINE TAFS WILL COVER ACTIVITY THAT DOES
OCCUR. EAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST. HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2023, THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 97F WAS
RECORDED AT MARATHON. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO
1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 81 91 81 / 20 20 30 40
MARATHON 89 81 89 81 / 20 20 30 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MC
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
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