923  
FXUS62 KKEY 080940  
AFDKEY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL  
540 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION  
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT HAS BEEN MOSTLY BENIGN AS OUR KBYX RADAR HAS  
BEEN VOID OF ANY SHOWERS, EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE THAT JUST POPPED UP  
OVER THE DISTANT FLORIDA STRAITS AS WE WERE TYPING THIS. THE  
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY THAT DID OCCUR BEYOND OUR WATERS WAS SHORT  
LIVED, SO THESE NEW SHOWERS SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT. THE RADAR MAY BE  
PICKING UP ON SOME CLOUD STREAMERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE  
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW, BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE  
THESE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ON NIGHTTIME GOES-19 IMAGERY. WHAT IS  
EASIER TO SEE ON THE SAME IMAGERY IS THE SWATH OF HIGHER LEVEL  
CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA, SO WE MAY BE ON TRACK FOR A  
BEAUTIFUL SUNRISE THIS MORNING.  
 
THESE QUIETER CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO  
THE START OF TOMORROW COURTESY OF HIGHER PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS  
THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE  
UPPER 70S WILL LEAD TO INDICES APPROACHING, AND OCCASIONALLY  
SURPASSING, THE 100F DEGREE MARK. LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES  
WON'T OFFER MUCH RELIEF, BUT SOME PASSING CLOUDS WILL BRING A  
LITTLE BIT OF SHADE.  
 
CIMSS ANALYSIS PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN VERY HELPFUL WHEN IT HAS COME TO  
TRYING TO SORT THIS PATTERN OUT. MIMIC LAYER PWAT SHOWS THAT  
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST TODAY, BUT AN  
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EXISTS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN  
CUBA. VORTICITY ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF RELATIVE  
VORTICITY AT THE 200 MB LEVEL OVERHEAD, BUT THIS FEATURE IS LOST  
AS WE PROGRESS DOWNWARD THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE, AND IS LIKELY  
PLAYING A ROLE IN OUR QUIETER RADAR. HOWEVER, AT THE 500MB AND  
700MB LEVELS, WE CAN SEE TWO AREAS OF INTEREST OVER THE BAHAMAS,  
AND TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA. WITH THE DEEP LAYER STEERING FLOW  
LOOKING A LITTLE KINKY, IT IS HARD TO SAY WHICH ONCE OF THESE  
AREAS IS GOING TO POSSIBLY RESULT IN SOME ACTIVE WEATHER. GLOBAL  
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE STILL INDICATING THAT ONE  
OF THESE AREAS OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, BRINGING AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND  
AN INCREASE IN POPS. FOR NOW, WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POPS  
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD, WITH A PEAK OF 50  
PERCENT POPS ON THURSDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY MAINLY STEMS FROM  
GUIDANCE STRUGGLING TO REFLECT THIS WAVE AT THE SURFACE, BUT THERE  
ARE SOME HINTS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE  
ATMOSPHERE.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE  
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A BUILDING ATLANTIC  
HIGH WILL SUSTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES FOR THE NEXT FEW  
DAYS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOSE TO  
NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT AN EASTERLY WAVE AND VEERING WINDS  
MAY GENERATE ELEVATED SHOWER COVERAGE FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE  
TAF PERIOD. A SLIGHT (20%) CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM  
REMAINS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY  
ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS IS TOO UNCERTAIN FOR TAF INCLUSION, SO  
AMENDMENTS AND LATER ROUTINE TAFS WILL COVER ACTIVITY THAT DOES  
OCCUR. EAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST. HIGHER GUSTS ARE  
POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS.  
 
 
   
CLIMATE  
 
ON THIS DAY IN 2023, THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 97F WAS  
RECORDED AT MARATHON. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO  
1950.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
KEY WEST 91 81 91 81 / 20 20 30 40  
MARATHON 89 81 89 81 / 20 20 30 40  
 
 
   
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP  
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MC  
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC  
 
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