490  
FXUS62 KKEY 081523  
AFDKEY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL  
1123 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION  
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
ANOTHER SUMMER DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. KBYX RADAR  
DETECTS A FEW SHOWERS WITH A THUNDERSTORM HERE AND THERE BUBBLING  
ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND IN THE  
GULF WATERS WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. MEANWHILE, GOES-19 VISIBLE  
IMAGERY NOTES CUMULUS CLOUD STREAMERS PROPAGATING SOUTHWEST OFF OF  
THE MIDDLE KEYS WITH NOT MUCH ELSE OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN. THIS HAS  
ALLOWED FOR A WARM START TO TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES ON LAND ALREADY  
READING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS  
PREVAIL ALONG THE REEF AND UP INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A MAINLAND  
SHADOW KEEPING SKIES CLEAR IN OUR GULF WATERS JUST OFF OF  
FLORIDA'S WEST COAST. OVERALL, BREEZES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN  
YESTERDAY WHILE SHOWER COVERAGE HAS SHIFTED MORE TO OUR SOUTHERN  
WATERS.  
 
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FINDS US IN A BIT OF A LULL REGARDING RAIN  
CHANCES. NORMALLY, A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE  
NORTHEAST BREEZES AND AVERAGE MOISTURE CONTENT WOULD POINT US  
TOWARDS CLOUDLINES FORMING ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. WHILE THIS  
ISN'T ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION, THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS  
WORKING AGAINST IT TODAY. WHILE THIS MORNING'S KKEY SOUNDING DID  
OBSERVE A NEAR NORMAL PW VALUE (~1.8 INCHES), CIMSS MIMIC TPW  
DEPICTS A SWATH OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR (PW OF ~1.6 INCHES) OVER  
THE KEYS BETWEEN A SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE GULF AND  
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING INVERTED TROUGH CHURNING  
THROUGH THE EAST END OF THE BAHAMAS. FURTHERMORE, DRY AIR OBSERVED  
JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION AT 900 MB MAY ALSO BE ENTRAINING INTO  
POCKETS OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION MAKING ANY DEEP DEVELOPMENT SHORT  
LIVED AT BEST. FINALLY, BREEZES ARE A TOUCH HIGHER THAN THE USUAL  
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOUDLINE LIKES TO LIVE IN. DESPITE ALL OF THESE  
FACTORS WORKING AGAINST RAINFALL, WE STILL ARE OPTING TO SIT ON  
THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES JUST BELOW  
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED INVERTED  
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST, RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY  
INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR  
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEY. FROM SYNOPSIS, A BUILDING  
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL SUSTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES FOR THE NEXT  
FEW DAYS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOSE TO  
NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT AN EASTERLY WAVE AND VEERING WINDS  
MAY GENERATE ELEVATED SHOWER COVERAGE FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(15Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TODAY. WHILE  
SOME CLOUD STREAMERS MAY DEVELOP TODAY AND SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED  
OUT, HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND ACTUAL OCCURRENCE OF THESE  
FEATURES WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF EITHER TAF FOR NOW. NEAR  
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT NEAR 10  
KNOTS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS, GRADUALLY  
DECREASING INTO THIS EVENING.  
 
 
   
CLIMATE  
 
ON THIS DAY IN 2023, THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 97F WAS  
RECORDED AT MARATHON. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO  
1950.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
KEY WEST 91 81 91 81 / 20 20 30 40  
MARATHON 89 81 89 81 / 20 20 30 40  
 
 
   
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM  
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM  
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM  
 
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY  
 
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