490
FXUS62 KKEY 081523
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1123 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
ANOTHER SUMMER DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. KBYX RADAR
DETECTS A FEW SHOWERS WITH A THUNDERSTORM HERE AND THERE BUBBLING
ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND IN THE
GULF WATERS WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. MEANWHILE, GOES-19 VISIBLE
IMAGERY NOTES CUMULUS CLOUD STREAMERS PROPAGATING SOUTHWEST OFF OF
THE MIDDLE KEYS WITH NOT MUCH ELSE OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN. THIS HAS
ALLOWED FOR A WARM START TO TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES ON LAND ALREADY
READING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
PREVAIL ALONG THE REEF AND UP INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A MAINLAND
SHADOW KEEPING SKIES CLEAR IN OUR GULF WATERS JUST OFF OF
FLORIDA'S WEST COAST. OVERALL, BREEZES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY WHILE SHOWER COVERAGE HAS SHIFTED MORE TO OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS.
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FINDS US IN A BIT OF A LULL REGARDING RAIN
CHANCES. NORMALLY, A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST BREEZES AND AVERAGE MOISTURE CONTENT WOULD POINT US
TOWARDS CLOUDLINES FORMING ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. WHILE THIS
ISN'T ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION, THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS
WORKING AGAINST IT TODAY. WHILE THIS MORNING'S KKEY SOUNDING DID
OBSERVE A NEAR NORMAL PW VALUE (~1.8 INCHES), CIMSS MIMIC TPW
DEPICTS A SWATH OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR (PW OF ~1.6 INCHES) OVER
THE KEYS BETWEEN A SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE GULF AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING INVERTED TROUGH CHURNING
THROUGH THE EAST END OF THE BAHAMAS. FURTHERMORE, DRY AIR OBSERVED
JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION AT 900 MB MAY ALSO BE ENTRAINING INTO
POCKETS OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION MAKING ANY DEEP DEVELOPMENT SHORT
LIVED AT BEST. FINALLY, BREEZES ARE A TOUCH HIGHER THAN THE USUAL
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOUDLINE LIKES TO LIVE IN. DESPITE ALL OF THESE
FACTORS WORKING AGAINST RAINFALL, WE STILL ARE OPTING TO SIT ON
THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES JUST BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED INVERTED
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST, RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEY. FROM SYNOPSIS, A BUILDING
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL SUSTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT AN EASTERLY WAVE AND VEERING WINDS
MAY GENERATE ELEVATED SHOWER COVERAGE FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TODAY. WHILE
SOME CLOUD STREAMERS MAY DEVELOP TODAY AND SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND ACTUAL OCCURRENCE OF THESE
FEATURES WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF EITHER TAF FOR NOW. NEAR
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT NEAR 10
KNOTS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS, GRADUALLY
DECREASING INTO THIS EVENING.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2023, THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 97F WAS
RECORDED AT MARATHON. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO
1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 81 91 81 / 20 20 30 40
MARATHON 89 81 89 81 / 20 20 30 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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