922
FXUS62 KKEY 100206
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1006 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
AN INVERTED TROUGH LOCATED BETWEEN FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS FORMED
A WEAKNESS IN THE ATLANTIC HIGH OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE TROUGH
WOULD CROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TOMORROW AT ITS CURRENT PACE.
GOES-EAST SATELLITE RETURNS DEPICT PULSES OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE EASTERN AXIS OF THE TROUGH. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE WAS DRY
EARLIER TODAY, THE 00Z SOUNDING OBSERVED AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER. HEIGHTS ALSO FELL OVER THE PAST TWELVE
HOURS. DESPITE AN ON PAPER MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, SHOWERS
ACROSS THE KEYS CWA WERE RESTRICTED TO CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERNMOST GULF WATERS. REPLENISHING ROUNDS OF CIRRUS CLOUDS
HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.
A CHAOTIC ENVIRONMENT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS ALONG THE INVERTED
TROUGH. MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, AND
VEERING WINDS WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR CONVECTION.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL (CAM) GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOWERS MAY FORM
SLIGHTLY BEFORE SUNRISE, BUT INITIAL PLACEMENT WILL DEPEND ON
LOCAL SCALE FEATURES ACROSS THE WATERS. SOUTHEASTERLY VEERING
WINDS DURING THE DAY SUGGESTS CLOUD LINES WILL STRUGGLE TO FORM.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HINTS THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REBUILDS TOWARDS THE KEYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
FROM SYNOPSIS, AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA
KEYS LATE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW ALONG. A MOISTURE PLUME WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS, AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH VEERING
WINDS FROM THE EASTERLY WAVE, SHOWER AND THUNDER COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. A POSSIBLE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
PULSE OVER THE WEEKEND MAY DROP RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES TO NEAR
NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND. BREEZES ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE THROUGHOUT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THROUGH 12Z THIS
MORNING. A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND VEERING WINDS WILL INCREASE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO WARRANT VCSH IN THE TAFS
STARTING AFTER SUNRISE. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR IMPACTS ARE THE
TERMINALS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS, BUT TIMING SHOWERS AND EXACT
IMPACTS IS TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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