440
FXUS62 KKEY 100915
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
515 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
KBYX RADAR HAS REMAINED ACTIVE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. AS FOR NOW, MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED IN
THE DEEP GULF WATERS AND THE DISTANT STRAITS. ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S, AND MARINE LOCATIONS
ALONG THE REEF ARE DETECTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS. MIMIC PRECIPITABLE WATER PORTRAYS THAT A MAJORITY OF THE
DRY AIR THAT WAS PRESENT IN THE CWA 24 HOURS AGO IS DETERIORATING
AND TROPICAL MOISTURE IS TAKING OVER. AS MOISTURE BECOMES ABUNDANT
AND A EASTERLY WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA, SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THINGS WILL GET MORE
ACTIVE IN THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CLOUD TO SURFACE
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. APART FROM CONVECTION,
BREEZES WILL START TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS, RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES. TONIGHT, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SPARSE
BUT STILL AT A CHANCE THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PERSISTENT RIDGING
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS, MAINTAINING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. GEOS-FP DUST
AEROSOL OPTICAL THICKNESS GUIDANCE INDICATES A SAHARAN AIR LAYER
PLUME WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, INTRODUCING A DRIER AIRMASS AND
SUPPRESS A MAJORITY OF CONVECTION. POPS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY LOWERED
OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS STILL REMAINS UNTIL
CONFIDENCE INCREASES OF THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR FROM SAL.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH AND A TROPICAL EASTERLY WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. GIVEN IT IS IN THE EXTENDED, POPS HAVE
BEEN MAINTAINED AT CHANCE AND WILL BE ADJUSTED AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS MORNING RESULTING IN GRADUAL
INCREASE OF EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. A MOISTURE PLUME WILL
ENTER THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS, AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
ELEVATED WINDS FROM THE EASTERLY WAVE, SHOWER AND THUNDER COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. SAHARAN AIR
LAYER WILL MOVE IN LATE THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES BECOMING NEAR NORMAL OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO GENTLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AROUND 10/12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE THREAT LINGERING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PLACEMENT OF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER, THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH COVERAGE TO
WARRANT VCSH IN THE TAF. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 4 TO 9 KNOTS. HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY, THE DAILY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 94F WAS LAST RECORDED IN KEY WEST SET BACK IN 2020.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page