934
FXUS62 KKEY 101451
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1051 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
ALTHOUGH HARD TO DISCERN IN SATELLITE-DERIVED LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY PRODUCTS, VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
CLEARLY DEPICT A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE TRAVERSING THE FLORIDA KEYS AT
THIS LATE MORNING HOUR. KBYX DOPPLER RADAR HAS BEEN LIGHTING UP IN
THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER KEYS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS,
SUGGESTING THE AXIS OF THE WAVE CURRENTLY LIES SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE EASTERN MIDDLE KEYS. SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS
ALSO SUPPORT THIS ANALYZED LOCATION OF THE WAVE, WITH WINDS ACROSS
THE UPPER KEYS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST, AND WINDS ACROSS THE
DRIER LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S IN THE DRY
COMMUNITIES, COMPARED TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F IN THE RAIN-COOLED
UPPER KEYS LOCATIONS.
THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING AT KEY HIGHLIGHTED AN UNINHIBITED MIXED
LAYER PARCEL TRAJECTORY. COUPLED WITH THE PASSING EASTERLY WAVE,
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, INITIALLY TO THE EAST, THEN EVENTUALLY IN THE
WESTERN KEYS ISLANDS AND MARINE ZONES. WITH THE LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THE LACK OF CLOUD COVERAGE CURRENTLY IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS, THERE IS ALSO A WINDOW FOR AN ISLAND
CLOUD LINE TO FORM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
AXIS PASSAGE, AND WE ARE ON ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
WATERSPOUTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DEVELOPING CLOUD STREAMERS.
COMBINING ALL OF THIS ANALYSIS SUPPORTS AND LEAST 50/50 RAIN AND
THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND DIRECTIONS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL THE WAVE AXIS FULLY PROPAGATES THROUGH, NO
CHANGES PROPOSED FOR THIS LATE MORNING FORECAST ITERATION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE, IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODESTLY FRESHENING EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES, WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDER
COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE IN OVER
THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN REDUCED RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO GENTLE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW IN
COVERAGE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
INITIALLY NEAR MTH, THEN EVENTUALLY NEAR EYW. OWED TO A LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF STORM INITIATION, A GENERIC PERIOD OF
VCSH IS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR NOW, WITH MORE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND IMPACTS TO VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS LEFT TO LATER TAF ROUTINE
ISSUANCES AND AMENDMENTS. NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 82 92 82 / 40 40 40 30
MARATHON 89 82 89 82 / 50 50 40 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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