950  
FXUS62 KKEY 101757  
AFDKEY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL  
157 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL POSSIBLY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY  
AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT,  
TIMING, AND EVOLUTION PERMITS NOT INCLUDING MENTION IN THE TAFS  
AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED AT THE 00Z TAF  
ISSUANCE. NEAR- SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO  
SOUTHEAST, MODESTLY FRESHENING OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
ALTHOUGH HARD TO DISCERN IN SATELLITE-DERIVED LOW- AND MID-LEVEL  
VORTICITY PRODUCTS, VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY  
CLEARLY DEPICT A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE TRAVERSING THE FLORIDA KEYS AT  
THIS LATE MORNING HOUR. KBYX DOPPLER RADAR HAS BEEN LIGHTING UP IN  
THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER KEYS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS,  
SUGGESTING THE AXIS OF THE WAVE CURRENTLY LIES SOMEWHERE IN THE  
VICINITY OF THE EASTERN MIDDLE KEYS. SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS  
ALSO SUPPORT THIS ANALYZED LOCATION OF THE WAVE, WITH WINDS ACROSS  
THE UPPER KEYS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST, AND WINDS ACROSS THE  
DRIER LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST.  
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S IN THE DRY  
COMMUNITIES, COMPARED TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F IN THE RAIN-COOLED  
UPPER KEYS LOCATIONS.  
 
THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING AT KEY HIGHLIGHTED AN UNINHIBITED MIXED  
LAYER PARCEL TRAJECTORY. COUPLED WITH THE PASSING EASTERLY WAVE,  
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH  
THE AFTERNOON, INITIALLY TO THE EAST, THEN EVENTUALLY IN THE  
WESTERN KEYS ISLANDS AND MARINE ZONES. WITH THE LIGHT  
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THE LACK OF CLOUD COVERAGE CURRENTLY IN  
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS, THERE IS ALSO A WINDOW FOR AN ISLAND  
CLOUD LINE TO FORM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE WAVE  
AXIS PASSAGE, AND WE ARE ON ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR  
WATERSPOUTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DEVELOPING CLOUD STREAMERS.  
COMBINING ALL OF THIS ANALYSIS SUPPORTS AND LEAST 50/50 RAIN AND  
THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  
OUTSIDE OF MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND DIRECTIONS FOR THE NEXT  
SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL THE WAVE AXIS FULLY PROPAGATES THROUGH, NO  
CHANGES PROPOSED FOR THIS LATE MORNING FORECAST ITERATION.  
 

 
   
FORECAST
 
 
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
AS MOISTURE BECOMES ABUNDANT AND A EASTERLY WAVE MOVES INTO THE  
AREA, SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  
THAT THINGS WILL GET MORE ACTIVE IN THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING AND  
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY  
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND  
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. APART FROM CONVECTION, BREEZES WILL START TO  
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
TIGHTENS, RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES.  
TONIGHT, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SPARSE BUT STILL AT A  
CHANCE THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
OVER THE WEEKEND, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PERSISTENT RIDGING  
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE  
FLORIDA KEYS, MAINTAINING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. GEOS-FP DUST  
AEROSOL OPTICAL THICKNESS GUIDANCE INDICATES A SAHARAN AIR LAYER  
PLUME WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, INTRODUCING A DRIER AIRMASS AND  
SUPPRESS A MAJORITY OF CONVECTION. POPS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY LOWERED  
OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS STILL REMAINS UNTIL  
CONFIDENCE INCREASES OF THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR FROM SAL.  
 
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED AS THE  
MID-LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH AND A TROPICAL EASTERLY WAVE  
APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. GIVEN IT IS IN THE EXTENDED, POPS HAVE  
BEEN MAINTAINED AT CHANCE AND WILL BE ADJUSTED AS CONFIDENCE  
INCREASES.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR  
THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL  
CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS  
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
WAVE, IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODESTLY FRESHENING EAST TO  
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES, WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDER  
COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE IN OVER  
THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN REDUCED RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES. WINDS  
WILL SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO GENTLE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
KEY WEST 91 82 92 82 / 40 40 40 30  
MARATHON 89 82 89 82 / 50 50 40 40  
 

 
   
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT  
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT  
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT  
 
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