950
FXUS62 KKEY 101757
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
157 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL POSSIBLY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT,
TIMING, AND EVOLUTION PERMITS NOT INCLUDING MENTION IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED AT THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE. NEAR- SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST, MODESTLY FRESHENING OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
ALTHOUGH HARD TO DISCERN IN SATELLITE-DERIVED LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY PRODUCTS, VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
CLEARLY DEPICT A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE TRAVERSING THE FLORIDA KEYS AT
THIS LATE MORNING HOUR. KBYX DOPPLER RADAR HAS BEEN LIGHTING UP IN
THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER KEYS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS,
SUGGESTING THE AXIS OF THE WAVE CURRENTLY LIES SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE EASTERN MIDDLE KEYS. SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS
ALSO SUPPORT THIS ANALYZED LOCATION OF THE WAVE, WITH WINDS ACROSS
THE UPPER KEYS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST, AND WINDS ACROSS THE
DRIER LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S IN THE DRY
COMMUNITIES, COMPARED TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F IN THE RAIN-COOLED
UPPER KEYS LOCATIONS.
THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING AT KEY HIGHLIGHTED AN UNINHIBITED MIXED
LAYER PARCEL TRAJECTORY. COUPLED WITH THE PASSING EASTERLY WAVE,
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, INITIALLY TO THE EAST, THEN EVENTUALLY IN THE
WESTERN KEYS ISLANDS AND MARINE ZONES. WITH THE LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THE LACK OF CLOUD COVERAGE CURRENTLY IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS, THERE IS ALSO A WINDOW FOR AN ISLAND
CLOUD LINE TO FORM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
AXIS PASSAGE, AND WE ARE ON ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
WATERSPOUTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DEVELOPING CLOUD STREAMERS.
COMBINING ALL OF THIS ANALYSIS SUPPORTS AND LEAST 50/50 RAIN AND
THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND DIRECTIONS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL THE WAVE AXIS FULLY PROPAGATES THROUGH, NO
CHANGES PROPOSED FOR THIS LATE MORNING FORECAST ITERATION.
FORECAST
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
AS MOISTURE BECOMES ABUNDANT AND A EASTERLY WAVE MOVES INTO THE
AREA, SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THINGS WILL GET MORE ACTIVE IN THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. APART FROM CONVECTION, BREEZES WILL START TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS, RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES.
TONIGHT, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SPARSE BUT STILL AT A
CHANCE THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PERSISTENT RIDGING
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS, MAINTAINING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. GEOS-FP DUST
AEROSOL OPTICAL THICKNESS GUIDANCE INDICATES A SAHARAN AIR LAYER
PLUME WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, INTRODUCING A DRIER AIRMASS AND
SUPPRESS A MAJORITY OF CONVECTION. POPS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY LOWERED
OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS STILL REMAINS UNTIL
CONFIDENCE INCREASES OF THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR FROM SAL.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH AND A TROPICAL EASTERLY WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. GIVEN IT IS IN THE EXTENDED, POPS HAVE
BEEN MAINTAINED AT CHANCE AND WILL BE ADJUSTED AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE, IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODESTLY FRESHENING EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES, WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDER
COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE IN OVER
THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN REDUCED RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO GENTLE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 82 92 82 / 40 40 40 30
MARATHON 89 82 89 82 / 50 50 40 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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