722
FXUS62 KKEY 120258
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1058 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1058 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025
EARLIER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON QUICKLY FADED AS IT TRACKED
NORTHWEST ACROSS MAINLY THE OPEN WATERS OF OUR CWA. ALL WAS QUIET
THEREAFTER FOR A FEW HOURS. WITHIN IN THE LAST 2 HOURS, CONVECTION
BOTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND CUBA HAVE EJECTED ROBUST
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY WAS INITIALLY TRACKING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND RECENTLY HAS MADE A WESTERN TURN. THE
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY IS SURGING NORTH AND MOVING ACROSS THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. THESE BOUNDARIES HAVE A CHANCE TO COLLIDE AND PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WITH ALMOST EXPLOSIVE RESULTS.
CURRENT ESTIMATES PUTS A POSSIBLE BOUNDARY COLLISION IN ABOUT 2
HOURS. HOWEVER, BOTH BOUNDARIES COULD LOSE ENOUGH STEAM BEFORE
COLLIDING THAT ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WOULD BE LIMITED IN
COVERAGE AND EXTENT. IN ADDITION, THE POINT OF CONVERGENCE WOULD
OCCUR MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS AND STAY OUT ACROSS OPEN
WATERS. FOR NOW, GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTIES, DID NOT MAKE
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1058 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025
MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SURGE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL
PRODUCE SUDDEN, GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS. OUTSIDE OF THESE
BOUNDARIES, SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL
SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NEAR-NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DISTURBANCE OFF THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED
TO DIVE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK, SUPPORTING BOUTS OF INCREASED STORM CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. CURRENTLY
SEEING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ACROSS THE
EYW TERMINAL. THIS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
THEREAFTER, EXPECTING NEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH AND ABOUT SUNRISE.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....11
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