079
FXUS62 KKEY 120940
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
540 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 540 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
WHAT WAS A VERY ACTIVE LATE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE DISTANT
STRAITS OF FLORIDA, HAS SIMMERED DOWN WITH ONLY A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS ALONG BOUNDARIES LEFT IN THE DEEP GULF AND DISTANT
STRAITS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ALONG THE REEF, MARINE
LOCATIONS ARE RECORDING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
FOR TODAY, CAMS SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION NEARING THE
ISLAND CHAIN AROUND 18Z AND THEREAFTER TAPERING OFF. MIMIC
PRECIPITABLE WATER DOES SHOW SOME DRY AIR MOVING EAST INTO THE
AREA SO THIS COULD HELP LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY.
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL BECOME LIGHT TO GENTLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT STAYING IN THE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION.
STARTING NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT AS ANOTHER EASTERLY
DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARDS OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME, MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT OUR CURRENT ADVERTISED POPS ARE TOO
LOW BUT DUE TO LESS CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH OF THE WAVE AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED ARE LEAVING POPS AT A CHANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES
MORE CLEAR. BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRESHENING BREEZES TO GENTLE TO MODERATE ONCE AGAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 540 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SURGE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
BOUNDARIES WILL PRODUCE SUDDEN, GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS. OUTSIDE OF
THESE BOUNDARIES, SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR- NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DISTURBANCE OFF THE SOUTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING BOUTS OF INCREASED STORM CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS. SOME GUIDANCE WAS
SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS AS EARLY
AS 12/09Z WHICH IS WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE TAF. HOWEVER, LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TIMING BEING DELAYED WHICH MAY RESULT IN A
TAF AMENDMENT AT 12/09Z TO DELAY THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF REDUCING
VIS AND CIGS TO MVFR CONDITIONS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 8 TO 14 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN AND NEAR CONVECTION.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW
TEMPERATURE OF 87F WAS RECORDED. THIS IS ALSO TIED FOR THE WARMEST
LOW TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN JULY FOR THE KEY WEST AREA.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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