504
FXUS62 KKEY 121521
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1121 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1116 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION PROGRESSED THROUGH THE OFFSHORE GULF
WATERS AND ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE MIDDLE KEYS EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THESE STORMS QUICKLY WANED, LIKELY OWED TO AN INGESTION
OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. KBYX DOPPLER RADAR IS NOW ONLY DETECTING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
AMPLE SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S. WHILE IT IS TEMPTING TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
BALANCE OF TODAY, LOCALIZED CONFLUENCE, COUPLED WITH EXISTING
GHOST BOUNDARIES, SUGGESTS SCATTERED COVERAGE MAY REDEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES PROPOSED FOR THIS LATE MORNING FORECAST
EDITION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1116 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SURGE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
BOUNDARIES WILL PRODUCE SUDDEN, GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS. OUTSIDE OF
THESE BOUNDARIES, SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR- NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DISTURBANCE OFF THE SOUTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING BOUTS OF INCREASED STORM CHANCES.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
WHILE SUMMERTIME PASSING SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL,
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, CHANCES ARE FAR TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 82 91 80 / 30 30 30 30
MARATHON 89 82 89 80 / 40 30 40 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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