677
FXUS62 KKEY 121912
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
312 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
ALTHOUGH A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NEAR-
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 10
KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR- NORMAL RAIN AND
THUNDER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DISTURBANCE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING BOUTS OF
INCREASED STORM CHANCES.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION PROGRESSED THROUGH THE OFFSHORE GULF
WATERS AND ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE MIDDLE KEYS EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THESE STORMS QUICKLY WANED, LIKELY OWED TO AN INGESTION
OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. KBYX DOPPLER RADAR IS NOW ONLY DETECTING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
AMPLE SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S. WHILE IT IS TEMPTING TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
BALANCE OF TODAY, LOCALIZED CONFLUENCE, COUPLED WITH EXISTING
GHOST BOUNDARIES, SUGGESTS SCATTERED COVERAGE MAY REDEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES PROPOSED FOR THIS LATE MORNING FORECAST
EDITION.
FORECAST
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
THIS WEEKEND THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING
OUR WEATHER WILL PERSIST MAINTAINING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRAIDENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ABUNDANT THROUGHOUT
TODAY BUT AS DRY AIR, DUE TO SAHARAN DUST, MOVES EAST INTO OUR
AREA, CHANCES WILL DECREASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED. MID- LEVEL
RIDGING IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. AT THIS TIME POPS REMAIN AT A CHANCE BUT
AS FORECAST CERTAINTY IMPROVES, UPDATES COULD BE NECESSARY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 82 91 80 / 30 30 30 30
MARATHON 89 82 89 80 / 40 30 40 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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