626
FXUS62 KKEY 130232
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1032 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1023 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
A MUCH LESS ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAN 24 HOURS AGO,
HOWEVER, WE STILL DID SEE QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING TONIGHT. ONE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED NORTH OF SNIPE POINT AND QUICKLY GREW INTO
QUITE THE LIGHTNING MAKER. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WE SAW THIS EVENING WERE SHORT LIVED ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 30
MINS. TONIGHT'S SOUNDING SHOWS A SIMILAR ATMOSPHERIC STRUCTURE TO
LAST NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE, BUT LACKING IN LOW LEVEL
CAPE. IN ADDITION, TONIGHT'S WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND WEAKER, WHICH
IS NOT LENDING ITSELF TO ANY ROBUST BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. WINDS
ACROSS THE MARINE PLATFORMS SHOW 5 TO 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE, ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE SEEING EVEN LIGHTER
SPEEDS AROUND 5 MPH BEING REPORTED AT THE AIRPORT ASOS.
WE'RE NOT OUT OF THE WOOD YET FOR PRECIPITATION. IN FACT, A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS RIDING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND APPROACHING THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE A SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE CURRENTLY
PRESENT. WE'RE STARTING TO SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER
THE WATERS BETWEEN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS IS SLOWLY
MAKING IT'S WAY TOWARDS US BUT WILL TAKE SOME TIME GIVEN THE LIGHT
STEERING FLOW. FELT NO NEED TO CHANGE POPS FROM LOW END CHANCE (30
PERCENT).
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1023 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL
SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NEAR- NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY. A DISTURBANCE OFF THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO
DIVE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK, SUPPORTING BOUTS OF INCREASED STORM CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. WE WILL SEE MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING. THAT
BEING SAID, THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES ON WHEN WE COULD SEE
IMPACT FROM ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTIONS
FOR FUTURE AMENDMENTS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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