603
FXUS62 KKEY 131837
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
237 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2025
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE, PREV DISCUSSION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2025
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVAILING AT BOTH EYW AND MTH FOR
THE 18Z TAF, PERIODS OF SHORT- LIVED MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS. EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
IN AND AROUND THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY EYW. NEAR
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BELOW 10 KNOTS AND VARIABLE AWAY FROM
SHOWERS. EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING BEFORE MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BECOMES MORE LIKELY BY 09 UTC.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2025
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, WINDS
BECAME VARIABLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLIER TODAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WANES. SHOWER COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS DIRECTED
ACROSS THE CWA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY
OF FLORIDA HEADING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. INITIALLY,
THE KEYS WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE IN A COL REGION RESULTING
IN MAINLY VARIABLE BREEZES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND, BREEZES WILL FRESHEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT FIRST,
BEFORE BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. ALSO,
EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2025
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT. GOES EAST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS
SHOWS PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 1.75 INCHES TO 1.95 INCHES
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THEREFORE, EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE HIGH PRESSURE
LARGELY IN CONTROL, THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
AREA. THIS CAN LEAD TO THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY POINT IN TIME. THEREFORE, ABOVE NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH 40% AND 50%
RESPECTIVELY. ANY ACTIVITY TODAY IS LARGELY EXPECTED TO FORM OFF
ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES OR MESOSCALE PROCESSES. FOR TONIGHT,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM ON THE MAINLAND ARE EXPECTED
TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PARTS OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN, ESPECIALLY THE UPPER KEYS. ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE FOCUS WILL MAINLY BE ON THE 20%
AREA FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS THAT THE NHC-
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. AT MOST, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
MEANDER SOUTHWARD FROM OFF THE GEORGIA COASTLINE AND THEN
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS A RESULT, BOUTS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE INITIATED EACH DAY
AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
THE KEYS COULD SEE MAY INITIALLY FORM ON THE MAINLAND AND THEN
DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE KEYS. ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. DUE TO THIS, THE FORECAST HAS BEEN DRASTICALLY CHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES. THERE IS NOW A 60% CHANCE FOR RAIN FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH 50% FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THUNDER HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR A MUCH WETTER AND STORMIER PERIOD FOR THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
(WPC) HAS THE KEYS HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4)
FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD.
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN RETURNS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUILDS INTO FLORIDA BRINGING A RETURN TO THE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLIES AND MOISTURE UNDULATIONS AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. AS A RESULT, EXPECT DECREASING RAIN CHANCES
WITH 40% FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO AROUND
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WHICH IS NEAR 30%.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page