482
FXUS62 KKEY 140245
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1045 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2025
WE HAVE BEEN RECEIVING EPISODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRETTY
MUCH ALL AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EACH EVENT SEEMINGLY AFFECTING A
DIFFERENT PART OF THE ISLAND CHAIN EACH TIME. THIS LATEST BATCH
THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE LAST HOUR IS OCCURRING OVER THE
MIDDLE KEYS AND OVER SUGARLOAF KEY AND THE SADDLEBUNCHES. IT'S A
CASE OF SAME STUFF DIFFERENT DAY. WE HAVE SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE
THAN 24 HOURS AGO BUT STILL QUITE A BIT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO WORK
WITH. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LACKING A LITTLE MORE THAN
YESTERDAY. WE STILL DON'T HAVE ANY LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION, HENCE OUR ISOLATED AND RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED CONVECTION
THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS FEATURE IS SLOWLY
HEADING TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WILL BE INTERACTING WITH
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL FINALLY LEND THE
LARGE SCALE LIFT WE HAVE BEEN LACKING FOR APPRECIABLE RAIN. IN THE
MEANTIME, OPTED TO MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AND KEPT
POPS FOR TONIGHT AT 40% GIVEN THE READILY AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
THERE ARE PLENTY OF BOUNDARIES TO INTERACT WITH ON THE MESO SCALE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2025
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS DIRECTED ACROSS THE
CWA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA
HEADING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. INITIALLY, THE KEYS
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE IN A COL REGION RESULTING IN MAINLY
VARIABLE BREEZES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE
AREA SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND,
BREEZES WILL FRESHEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT FIRST, BEFORE
BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. ALSO, EXPECT
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION.
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, INITIALLY FAVORING MTH AND SHIFTING WEST
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page