037
FXUS62 KKEY 141740
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
140 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. TONIGHT, A PERIOD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD POTENTIALLY
IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS, BUT FOR THE TIME BEING, ONLY VCSH IS
INCLUDED. IF DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED, TEMPOS WILL BE ADDED.
NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1125 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2025
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY WANING OVER THE CWA WITH ONLY A
CLUSTER OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE DEEP GULF WATERS, THAT IS MOVING
SOUTHWESTERLY. UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS FILL MOST OF THE AREA SEEN ON
GOES-19 SATELITTE IMAGERY. EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES,
TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL BEEN ABLE TO WARM UP THIS MORNING NOW IN
THE MID 80S. ALONG THE REEF, WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS
MORNING'S 12Z KKEY SOUNDING CALCULATED AN IN-HOUSE WATERSPOUT
INDEX OF 50% SO ALTHOUGH NONE HAVE BEEN REPORTED AS OF YET, THERE
IS A CHANCE THOSE COULD BE SEEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, CAMS SUGGESTS A MAJORITY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL COME FROM SPILLAGE OFF THE MAINLAND EFFECTING THE
UPPER KEYS, BUT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND CAPE, THE CWA AS A WHOLE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM, WHICH WOULD
BRING GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD- TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE.
FORECAST
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2025
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE FOCUS WILL MAINLY BE ON THE 30% AREA
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS THAT THE NHC-
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. AT MOST, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MEANDERING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM OFF THE GEORGIA COASTLINE AND
THEN RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS A RESULT,
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE INITIATED
EACH DAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY THE KEYS COULD SEE MAY INITIALLY FORM ON THE MAINLAND AND
THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE KEYS. ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE FORECAST WAS SPLIT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD
FOR THE UPPER KEYS (70%) AND THEN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS (50%).
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHER IN THE UPPER KEYS BEING THE MORE
FAVORABLE REGION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS STORMS
ROLL OFF THE MAINLAND. AS WE PROGRESS INTO TONIGHT, THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN GOES UP TO ABOUT THE SAME EVERYWHERE WITH 70% FOR THE ISLAND
CHAIN. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS THE KEYS
HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) FOR THE TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD.
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC
BUILDS INTO FLORIDA BRINGING A RETURN TO THE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLIES AND MOISTURE UNDULATIONS AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. AS A RESULT, EXPECT DECREASING RAIN CHANCES
WITH 40% FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WHICH IS
NEAR 30%. ALSO, IT WILL FOR SURE BE SUMMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 102-107 DEGREES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH
IS JUST UNDER HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1125 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO DEVELOP
IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA HEADING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. INITIALLY, THE KEYS WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE IN A COL
REGION RESULTING IN MAINLY VARIABLE BREEZES THROUGH TONIGHT. AS
THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND, BREEZES WILL FRESHEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AT FIRST, BEFORE BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
ALSO, EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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