810
FXUS62 KKEY 160256
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1056 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1056 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2025
AFTER THIS MORNING'S BOUT OF PRECIPITATION, THE REST OF THE DAY
WAS SUSPICIOUSLY QUIET. WE EVEN SAW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN RETURN
BY MIDDAY AND LAST INTO THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS CHURNING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AS IT SLOWLY MOVES
WESTWARD INTO THE GULF. THIS IS GRADUALLY ALLOWING OUR WINDS TO
CLOCK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS IS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE
QUITE SATURATED WITH A PWAT OF OVER 2 INCHES. THE ONLY SAVING
GRACES SO TO SAY, IS THAT WE HAVE WEAK FLOW, SKINNY CAPE, AND NO
ORGANIZED LIFT, YET.
WATCHING RADAR, WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE OUTER STRAITS OF FLORIDA. TO THE WEST WE
CAN STILL SEE A BROAD MCV OVER AND JUST WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.
LASTLY, HIGH PRESSURE IS ATTEMPTING TO NOSE IN FROM THE EAST, WITH
A WEAK SURGE BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE. THE MCV HAS BEEN CREATING
SOME OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND IT REMAINS
TO BE SEEN WHAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY FIRE TONIGHT. THE REAL
PLAYERS WILL BE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IN THE INCOMING WIND
SURGE AS THE HIGH BUILDS FROM EAST TO WEST. ALREADY SOME
CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN ALONG THIS LEADING EDGE OF THE RETURNING
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH AN ALREADY SATURATED
ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT BUT NOT GREAT INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP. HI-RES CAMS HAVE BEEN
WINDSHIELD APPEARING ON COVERAGE AND TIMING. FOR NOW, THE BEST
CHANCES WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, WILL LEAVE LIKELY POPS FOR NOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1056 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2025
AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE WEST AND
INTO THE GULF, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT STRENGTHENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WITH ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY EXTENDING INTO THE KEYS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
BREEZES CONTINUING, OCCASIONALLY BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WATCHING A BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THAT MAY
SPARK NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS IT PUSHES NORTH.
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT COVERAGE AND TIMING REMAINS LOWER THAN USUAL
AND WILL KEEP MENTIONS OUT FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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