098
FXUS62 KKEY 161910
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
310 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PEIOD, BUT OCCASIONAL
INSTANCES OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO CLOUDS NEAR FL025.
DRIER WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE BEGINNING OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD,
BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE VICINITY OF BOTH
TERMINALS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO
INFREQUENT BOUTS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. FOR NOW, WE ARE LEANING NEAR
02Z FOR ONSET TIME OF VCSH. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1006 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2025
WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE MIXED THIS MORNING,
DEPENDING ON WHERE ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN YOU ARE LOCATED. OUR
KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN TRACKING QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY,
PARTICULARLY AROUND THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. A CONVEYOR BELT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE DISTANT STRAITS, ACROSS
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS, AND APPROACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
HAS BEEN PERSISTING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH ALMOST NO
INDICATION OF DIMINISHING ANYTIME SOON. THE ALLIGATOR REEF
WEATHERFLOW STATION REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 29 KNOTS WHEN A CELL
MOVED OVERHEAD JUST BEFORE 9 AM EDT. NATURALLY, WE DO NOT HAVE ANY
AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THAT HAVE REPORTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, BUT RADAR DERIVED ESTIMATES ARE SHOWING STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF APPROXIMATELY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
KEYS. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF POCKETS OF RAINFALL ESTIMATES CLOSER
TO AN INCH, BUT THESE MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLACED FROM ISLAND
COMMUNITIES.
GOES-19 LIGHTNING DETECTION HAS DETECTED A MIX OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL, BUT NOT EVERY
SHOWER HAS DEVELOPED INTO A THUNDERSTORM. THIS JUST MEANS IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DIFFICULT TO PICK WHICH CELLS WILL GROW INTO
THUNDERSTORMS, AND WHICH ONES WILL CONTINUE TO JUST BE NUISANCE
SHOWERS. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING DOES SHOW A VERY WET
PROFILE WITH A CALCULATED PWAT VALUE OF 2.16" COMING IN JUST BELOW
THE DAILY MAX OF 2.21". BELOW 500 MB, AMPLE MOISTURE, A LACK ON
INHIBITION, AND A VEERING WIND PROFILE FAVOR AN ENVIRONMENT THAT
CAN SUPPORT CONTINUED ACTIVITY FOR NOW, SO WE WILL GO AHEAD AN
MAINTAIN THE 60 PERCENT POPS INHERITED FORM THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT,
BUT IT MAY BE A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THE RADAR REFLECTS THESE
ELEVATED POPS. THE FORECAST IS UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED, SO NO
UPDATES OR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15
MPH, AND CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1006 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS TODAY WITH COVERAGE GRADUALLY
INCREASING LATER THIS EVENING. STRONGER POCKETS OF STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, SUDDENLY
BUILDING AND CONFUSED SEAS, AND REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM BLINDING
DOWNPOURS.
FROM SYNOPSIS, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MEANWHILE, A STRONG AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, SUPPORTING FRESHENING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BREEZES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A SECOND, WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND, EASTERLY BREEZES WILL SLACKEN, BECOMING
LIGHT TO GENTLE.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page