772
FXUS62 KKEY 181752
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
152 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY LEAVING VCSH OUT OF
BOTH TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
NEAR 20 KNOTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
KBYX THIS MORNING HAS BEEN UNEVENTFUL WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
ATTEMPTING TO FORM BUT NOT HAVING MUCH SUCCESS. DRY AIR HAS
ENTERED OUR AREA, THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING REVEALED A DRY
PROFILE, AND MIMIC PRECIPITABLE WATER CONFIRMED THAT THE ENTIRE
CWA IS ENGULFED IN THIS DRY AIR. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN ARE CREEPING IN THE UPPER 80S AND WITH LIMITED CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ON GOES-19 SATELLITE, IT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REEF ARE BEING
RECORDED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THESE ELEVATED WINDS RESULTED IN
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND UNTIL WINDS DECREASE INCLUSION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE COASTAL WATERS. BEYOND HEADLINES BEING TAKEN DOWN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS DECREASE, NO CHANGES ARE NECCESARY TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.
FORECAST
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS RATHER
HIGH, WITH THE RIDGING UNDERNEATH THE TUTT CELL AS WELL AS A
DRYING MOISTURE PROFILE BELOW 500 MB SUGGESTING SLIGHT RAIN AND
THUNDER CHANCES AT BEST. THEREAFTER, ENSEMBLE NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN MAY GET A BIT
MORE INTERESTING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE MIDWEST
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BEFORE LIKELY STALLING SOMEWHERE OFF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME ENSEMBLE SUPPORT (PARTICULARLY IN THE GEFS
AND GEPS MEMBER AND MEAN PRODUCTS) SUGGESTING POSSIBLE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THIS FRONT, WITH THE FEATURE THEN DIVING
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OR THE EASTERN GULF
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A WINDOW OF
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTENING, ALONG WITH A VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND
PROFILE, CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A SEVERAL FORECAST PERIOD WINDOW
FOR ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
OVERALL, GIVEN MODEL- TO-MODEL AND RUN- TO- RUN CONSISTENCY OVER
THE PAST TWENTY- FOUR HOURS, MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONCE- PER- DAY FULL FORECAST CYCLE AT KEY TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, AND
UNTIL WINDS DECREASE IN THE FLORIDA BAY, BAYSIDE/GULF SIDE, AND
HAWK CHANNEL. FROM SYNOPSIS, A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA, SUPPORTING FRESHENING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A SECOND, WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL
SLACKEN, BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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