864
FXUS62 KKEY 140730
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
330 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS, DERIVED FROM SATELLITE AND AVAILABLE
OBSERVATIONS, PLACES A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE WEST
OF THE AZORES IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC, BISECTING THE
EASTERN FLORIDA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TREASURE AND GOLD COASTS.
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED A LIGHT, BACKED LOW-LEVEL
WIND PROFILE, COUPLED WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF MIXED-LAYER
INHIBITION. DESPITE AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE, THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD HAS BEEN CHARACTERIZED BY VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
METEOROLOGICAL ECHO RETURNS, VERY UNCHARACTERISTIC FOR MID-AUGUST.
NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE KEYS, WITH AVAILABLE LAND-BASED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AT THIS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING HOUR.
FOR TODAY, THE LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST STEERING FLOW, COUPLED
WITH CONTINUED AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE, WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF POSSIBLE ISLAND CLOUD LINE FORMATION. CAM MESOSCALE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS, AND THE CALCULATED IN- HOUSE WATERSPOUT
INDEX VALUES FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY,
ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THIS, RAIN CHANCES WILL
LIKELY GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT PUSH
OFF THE FLORIDA MAINLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. GIVEN THE
LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIGHT FLOW, HIGH-END SLIGHT
MEASURABLE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES SEEMS APPROPRIATE. A SIMILAR
SETUP LOOKS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH AN UNDULATION
OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN
CHANCES. FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, THE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY FIRMLY PLANTED, SUPPORTING LIGHT TO
GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES AND NEAR- NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY BEYOND MONDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE STALLING. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE HURRICANE ERIN CENTERED SOMEWHERE IN THE WEST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. WHILE ERIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE DIRECT IMPACTS FOR
THE KEYS, ITS ULTIMATE TRACK AS WELL AS THE PROXIMITY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LARGELY DICTATE THE SYNOPTIC
WIND PATTERN AND MOISTURE PROFILE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK LOCALLY. FOR NOW, ADVERTISING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND,
ALTHOUGH WE WISH TO EMPHASIZE THAT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY
FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY NEAR 90, LOWS IN
THE LOWER 80S, AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE WATERSPOUT FORMATION
ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS ISLAND CHAIN LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. WATERSPOUTS TEND TO FORM CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS IN
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS, OFTEN IN THE VICINITY OF DARK FLAT
CLOUD BASES OF A LINE OF DEVELOPING CUMULUS CLOUDS.
FROM SYNOPSIS, A BROAD RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC
WESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO GENTLE
EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK, THE WEEKEND, AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST A CLOUDLINE OVER THE
LOWER KEYS COULD FORM PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS BUT FOR THE TIME
BEING, NO MENTION OF VCSH IS NECCESARY AT EITHER TERMINALS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2021, THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FRED MOVED
SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST ON AUGUST 14TH. FRED PRODUCED MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 32 MPH (MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH), WHILE
SMITH SHOAL LIGHT, SAND KEY LIGHT, AND SOMBRERO KEY MEASURED MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34 KNOTS (MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS OF 50 KNOTS, 40
KNOTS, AND 40 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY). MAXIMUM RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENT
WAS MEASURED IN THE UPPER KEYS WITH KEY LARGO MEASURING 2.48 INCHES
OF RAIN, FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT MEASURING 0.99
INCHES, AND KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT MEASURING 0.73 INCHES. NO
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE WAS REPORTED WITH ONLY MINOR STREET FLOODING AND
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES BEING THE BIGGEST IMPACTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 82 92 81 / 20 20 30 30
MARATHON 90 82 90 82 / 20 20 30 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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