120
FXUS62 KKEY 141411
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1011 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
LIGHT WINDS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND MUGGY SURFACE
CONDITIONS DEFINE THE MORNING WEATHER ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
KBYX RADAR RETURNS SHOW MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS, AND OCCASIONALLY SHOWERS WERE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES. GOES-E SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW MOSTLY SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE CWA, THOUGH TOWERING
CUMULUS OFF TO THE EAST GENERATED SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS MORNING ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
AND ARE ON TRACK TO REACH HIGHS NEAR 90 F. THE ANOMALOUS ASPECT OF
TODAY'S WEATHER WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE MORNING KKEY SOUNDING,
WHICH SAMPLED AN ENVIRONMENTAL PWAT JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 25TH
PERCENTILE VALUE FOR THE DAY. FINALLY, THE LACK OF NEARBY SYNOPTIC
FEATURES SUGGESTS ANY WEATHER EVENTS WILL BE MESOSCALE DRIVEN.
SUMMER MESOSCALE WEATHER DOES NOT MEAN UNEVENTFUL IN THE KEYS.
THE DAILY FLORIDA THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TONIGHT, AND SURFACE WINDS
BACKING EASTERLY SUGGESTS CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FOR
THE LOWER KEYS. CLOUD LINES MEAN WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL, NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OR THE
MORNING UPDATE. ENJOY THE LIGHT WINDS AND WATCH FOR ANY CLOUD
PULSES AROUND THE LOWER KEYS!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE WATERSPOUT FORMATION
ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS ISLAND CHAIN LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. WATERSPOUTS TEND TO FORM CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS IN
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS, OFTEN IN THE VICINITY OF DARK FLAT
CLOUD BASES OF A LINE OF DEVELOPING CUMULUS CLOUDS.
FROM SYNOPSIS, A BROAD RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC
WESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO GENTLE
EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK, THE WEEKEND, AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH FOR THE 12Z
TAF PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS BACKING EASTERLY WHILE REMAINING
LIGHT SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL CLOUD LINE OVER THE LOWER KEYS, BUT AT
THIS TIME VCSH TEMPO IS NOT REQUIRED FOR EITHER TERMINAL.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2021, THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FRED MOVED
SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST ON AUGUST 14TH. FRED PRODUCED MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 32 MPH (MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH), WHILE
SMITH SHOAL LIGHT, SAND KEY LIGHT, AND SOMBRERO KEY MEASURED MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34 KNOTS (MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS OF 50 KNOTS, 40
KNOTS, AND 40 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY). MAXIMUM RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENT
WAS MEASURED IN THE UPPER KEYS WITH KEY LARGO MEASURING 2.48 INCHES
OF RAIN, FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT MEASURING 0.99
INCHES, AND KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT MEASURING 0.73 INCHES. NO
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE WAS REPORTED WITH ONLY MINOR STREET FLOODING AND
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES BEING THE BIGGEST IMPACTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 82 92 81 / 20 20 30 30
MARATHON 90 82 90 82 / 20 20 30 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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