555
FXUS62 KKEY 141923
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
323 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE, PREV DISCUSSION
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS BACKING EAST INDICATES ELEVATED
POTENTIAL FOR A CLOUD LINE DEVELOPING NEAR EYW. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE NEARBY SHOWERS THAT WOULD REQUIRE A
TEMPO AT THIS TIME. EXPECT A SHIFT FROM EAST SOUTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY NEAR SURFACE WINDS BY TOMORROW MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
FROM SYNOPSIS, A BROAD RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC
WESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO GENTLE
EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK, THE WEEKEND, AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
LIGHT WINDS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND MUGGY SURFACE
CONDITIONS DEFINE THE MORNING WEATHER ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
KBYX RADAR RETURNS SHOW MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS, AND OCCASIONALLY SHOWERS WERE CAPABLE OF GENERATING
STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES. GOES-E SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOSTLY
SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE CWA, THOUGH TOWERING CUMULUS OFF
TO THE EAST GENERATED SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN THIS MORNING ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, AND ARE ON
TRACK TO REACH HIGHS NEAR 90 F. THE ANOMALOUS ASPECT OF TODAY'S
WEATHER WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE MORNING KKEY SOUNDING, WHICH
SAMPLED AN ENVIRONMENTAL PWAT JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 25TH
PERCENTILE VALUE FOR THE DAY. FINALLY, THE LACK OF NEARBY SYNOPTIC
FEATURES SUGGESTS ANY WEATHER EVENTS WILL BE MESOSCALE DRIVEN.
SUMMER MESOSCALE WEATHER DOES NOT MEAN UNEVENTFUL IN THE KEYS.
THE DAILY FLORIDA THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TONIGHT, AND SURFACE WINDS
BACKING EASTERLY SUGGESTS CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FOR
THE LOWER KEYS. CLOUD LINES MEAN WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL, NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OR THE
MORNING UPDATE. ENJOY THE LIGHT WINDS AND WATCH FOR ANY CLOUD
PULSES AROUND THE LOWER KEYS!
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2021, THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FRED MOVED
SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST ON AUGUST 14TH. FRED PRODUCED MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 32 MPH (MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH), WHILE
SMITH SHOAL LIGHT, SAND KEY LIGHT, AND SOMBRERO KEY MEASURED MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34 KNOTS (MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS OF 50 KNOTS, 40
KNOTS, AND 40 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY). MAXIMUM RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENT
WAS MEASURED IN THE UPPER KEYS WITH KEY LARGO MEASURING 2.48 INCHES
OF RAIN, FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT MEASURING 0.99
INCHES, AND KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT MEASURING 0.73 INCHES. NO
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE WAS REPORTED WITH ONLY MINOR STREET FLOODING AND
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES BEING THE BIGGEST IMPACTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 82 92 81 91 / 20 30 30 30
MARATHON 82 90 82 89 / 20 30 30 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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