488
FXUS62 KKEY 150734
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
334 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
SYNOPTIC UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES A SPRAWLING RIDGE STRETCHING
FROM THE GULF EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE
HAS BEEN QUASI-STEADY, OR EVEN MODESTLY STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST
TWENTY-FOUR HOURS, EVIDENCED BY THE 925-250 MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHT TRENDS SAMPLED IN RECENT SYNOPTIC SOUNDINGS AT KEY. THE 00Z
EVENING SOUNDING AT KEY ALSO SAMPLED LIMITED INHIBITION, BUT A
BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROFILE. LAND AND MARINE-BASED SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE SAMPLED LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW, ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S AT THIS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING HOUR. KBYX RADAR HAS ONLY DETECTED NOCTURNALLY- DRIVEN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DOTTING THE FLORIDA KEYS
MARINE ZONES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH LIMITED SYNOPTIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT, RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE
DRIVEN BY POSSIBLE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON ISLAND CLOUD LINES,
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS, OR POSSIBLE BOUTS OF MOISTURE UNDULATIONS IN
THE MEAN EASTERLIES. GIVEN THE STOCHASTIC NATURE OF SUCH
CONVECTIVE EPISODES, HAVE ELECTED TO ESSENTIALLY ROLL WITH NEAR-
CLIMO MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THERE IS A BIT LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DIP SOUTHEASTWARD,
BEFORE STALLING SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL INTERACT
WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE HURRICANE ERIN IN THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE STEERING FLOW AND ASSOCIATED TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
FIELD AS THESE FEATURES INTERACT WILL ULTIMATELY DICTATE RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE KEYS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF ERIN BEYOND FIVE DAYS,
IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE FORECAST CYCLES TO GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON THIS FORECAST FOR THE KEYS BEYOND TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A BROAD RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS
THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, THE WEEKEND, AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY
THEREFORE NO MENTION OF VCSH AT EITHER TERMINAL. NEAR SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE EASTERLY AT 4 TO 9 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1964, MARATHON RECORDED A RECORD HIGH OF 98F. THIS
ALSO TIES FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF
AUGUST FOR THE MARATHON AREA. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE
BACK TO 1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 81 91 81 / 20 20 20 30
MARATHON 91 82 90 82 / 20 20 30 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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