962
FXUS62 KKEY 151540
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1140 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
CONDITIONS FEEL RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS THIS MORNING. KBYX DETECTED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
THIS MORNING THAT HAVE NOW MOSTLY DETERIORATED LEAVING JUST A FEW
SHALLOW SHOWERS DOTTING OUR AREA. GOES-19 VISIBLE IMAGERY NOTES A
FEW BROKEN ROWS OF CUMULUS STREAMING WEST THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE KEYS, BUT ALSO DEPICTS A COUPLE CLOUD LINES BUBBLING
ALONG THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. WHILE THIS IS BRINGING SOME
REPRIEVE TO THE HOT AUGUST SUN, OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN ARE STILL REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90. MEANWHILE, GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES RECORDED ALONG THE REEF ARE
SLOWLY ON THE UPTREND FROM LAST NIGHT.
MORE OF THE SAME CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO. MEAN LAYER RIDGING EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST US AND
GULF WATERS FROM THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
OUR SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS MORNING'S KKEY 12Z SOUNDING LOOKS
MOSTLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY EVENING'S WITH A SIMILAR PW VALUE NEAR
THE 25TH PERCENTILE AND MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PROFILE. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE MID LEVELS HAS
NUDGED ITSELF DOWN TO THE 700 MB LAYER. THIS CHANGE ALSO CAME WITH
SOME WARMING JUST ABOVE 700 MB. THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH MAINLY
ZONAL SURFACE FLOW SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. TOMORROW WILL LIKELY START OUT THE SAME, BUT
IS FORECAST TO SEE A NUDGE TO CHANCE POPS AS A MOISTURE UNDULATION
CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS APPROACHES THE KEYS AFTER SUNRISE. THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A BROAD
RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES
ACROSS THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, THE
WEEKEND, AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TODAY. WHILE A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, HIGH VARIABILITY IN
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION WILL LEAVE MENTION GENERALLY OUT OF THE
TAFS UNLESS NEEDED. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF
THE EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1964, MARATHON RECORDED A RECORD HIGH OF 98F. THIS
ALSO TIES FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF
AUGUST FOR THE MARATHON AREA. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE
BACK TO 1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 81 91 81 / 20 20 20 30
MARATHON 91 82 90 82 / 20 20 30 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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