340
FXUS62 KKEY 151900
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
300 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. VCSH REMAINS IN EYW'S TAF FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A
CLOUDLINE CONTINUES TO BUBBLE NEAR KEY WEST, BUT ANY FURTHER
IMPACTS WILL BE EXPRESSED AS REQUIRED IN AMENDMENTS. NEAR SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
CONDITIONS FEEL RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS THIS MORNING. KBYX DETECTED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
THIS MORNING THAT HAVE NOW MOSTLY DETERIORATED LEAVING JUST A FEW
SHALLOW SHOWERS DOTTING OUR AREA. GOES-19 VISIBLE IMAGERY NOTES A
FEW BROKEN ROWS OF CUMULUS STREAMING WEST THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE KEYS, BUT ALSO DEPICTS A COUPLE CLOUD LINES BUBBLING
ALONG THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. WHILE THIS IS BRINGING SOME
REPRIEVE TO THE HOT AUGUST SUN, OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN ARE STILL REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90. MEANWHILE, GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES RECORDED ALONG THE REEF ARE
SLOWLY ON THE UPTREND FROM LAST NIGHT.
MORE OF THE SAME CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO. MEAN LAYER RIDGING EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST US AND
GULF WATERS FROM THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
OUR SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS MORNING'S KKEY 12Z SOUNDING LOOKS
MOSTLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY EVENING'S WITH A SIMILAR PW VALUE NEAR
THE 25TH PERCENTILE AND MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PROFILE. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE MID LEVELS HAS
NUDGED ITSELF DOWN TO THE 700 MB LAYER. THIS CHANGE ALSO CAME WITH
SOME WARMING JUST ABOVE 700 MB. THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH MAINLY
ZONAL SURFACE FLOW SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. TOMORROW WILL LIKELY START OUT THE SAME, BUT
IS FORECAST TO SEE A NUDGE TO CHANCE POPS AS A MOISTURE UNDULATION
CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS APPROACHES THE KEYS AFTER SUNRISE. THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH LIMITED SYNOPTIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT, RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE
DRIVEN BY POSSIBLE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON ISLAND CLOUD LINES,
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS, OR POSSIBLE BOUTS OF MOISTURE UNDULATIONS IN
THE MEAN EASTERLIES. GIVEN THE STOCHASTIC NATURE OF SUCH
CONVECTIVE EPISODES, HAVE ELECTED TO ESSENTIALLY ROLL WITH NEAR-
CLIMO MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THERE IS A BIT LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DIP SOUTHEASTWARD,
BEFORE STALLING SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL INTERACT
WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE HURRICANE ERIN IN THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE STEERING FLOW AND ASSOCIATED TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
FIELD AS THESE FEATURES INTERACT WILL ULTIMATELY DICTATE RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE KEYS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF ERIN BEYOND FIVE DAYS,
IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE FORECAST CYCLES TO GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON THIS FORECAST FOR THE KEYS BEYOND TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A BROAD
RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES
ACROSS THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, THE
WEEKEND, AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 91 81 92 / 20 20 30 30
MARATHON 82 90 82 89 / 20 30 30 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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