561
FXUS62 KKEY 161900
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
300 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH FOR THE REST OF
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON'S CLOUDLINE LOOKS TO BE
SIMMERING DOWN AFTER AN ACTIVE FEW HOURS. VCTS REMAINS IN EYW'S
TAF FOR RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM, BUT THEN NO
OTHER MENTION OF ACTIVITY IS MADE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FUTURE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF NEW STORMS. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WE CONTINUE
TO BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST AT 4 TO 9 KNOTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
ANOTHER SOMEWHAT TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE KEYS. A
STUBBORN LAYER OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS KEPT
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CONFINED OFF IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
EARLIER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, WITH THE ONSET OF THE AFTERNOON
JUST AROUND THE CORNER, GOES-19 VISIBLE IMAGERY IS ALREADY SHOWING
DEVELOPING CLOUDLINES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. KBYX
RADAR HAS DETECTED A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
CLOUDLINES, BUT THESE ARE GENERALLY SHORT LIVED FOR NOW.
MEANWHILE, A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUBBLE ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH A RARE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO RARELY OVERACHIEVING. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE SIMILAR TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY AS THEY FLOAT
AROUND THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. GENTLE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES
PERSIST ALONG THE REEF AS MEAN LAYER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
OUR SYNOPTIC FLOW.
RAIN CHANCES HAVE INCREASED JUST A TOUCH FROM YESTERDAY, BUT
CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY THE SAME. CIMSS LAYER TPW SHOWS THAT
AN UNDULATION OF MORE MOIST AIR NOW COVERS OUR CWA. CALCULATED
VALUES ARE NOW ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA, CLOSE TO THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR TODAY. THAT DOES NOT TELL THE FULL STORY HOWEVER,
AS THIS MORNING'S KKEY SOUNDING ONLY CLOCKED IN WITH A NEAR
AVERAGE PW OF 1.83 INCHES. PART OF THIS DISCREPANCY IS FOUND IN
THE SPIKE OF DRY AIR OBSERVED IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE
SOUNDING PROFILE. WHILE NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS YESTERDAY, THIS
FEATURE IS CERTAINLY AFFECTING DEVELOPMENT TODAY WITH SHOWERS THAT
HAD ATTEMPTED TO FORM NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN FIZZLING QUICKLY.
RECENT CAM RUNS STILL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME CONVECTION FORMING
NEAR THE LOWER KEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOWING THAT THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE, THOUGH NOT AS LARGE AS FIRST THOUGHT, COULD
STILL DO ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS. AS SUCH, OPTED TO HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, MAINTAINING LIGHT EASTERLY, TO AT TIMES VARIABLE, BREEZES.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAK, THEREFORE OUR WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW OUR TYPICAL LATE SUMMER KEYS PATTERN WITH OCCASIONAL
ISOLATED CONVECTION. HURRICANE ERIN IS FORECAST TO STAY WELL EAST
OVER THE ATLANTIC, WITH NO DIRECT IMPACTS TO OUR CWA EXPECTED,
THOUGH PERIPHERAL MOISTURE COULD SLIGHTLY INFLUENCE LOCAL RAIN
CHANCES MID WEEK. STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A BROAD
RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES
ACROSS THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 92 82 92 / 40 30 40 30
MARATHON 82 90 82 90 / 30 30 40 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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